Coast Guard Bears
Model Outputs
2025-2026 latest available
No materialized model snapshot for 2025 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 849 (#580) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 874 (#526) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1035 (#228) | HCA +56 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 906 (#666) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -15.9 (#321) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +21.1 (#114) | HCA +3.0 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -11.5 (#553) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.289 (#606) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.216 (#525) | AdjNet -11.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.207 (#527) | AdjNet -11.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.317 (#520) | AdjO 72.7 | AdjD 81.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.471 (#474) | AdjO 74.7 | AdjD 75.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.347 (#631) | AdjO 74.0 | AdjD 80.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.679 (#231) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.265 (#610) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.676 (#227) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.275 (#613) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 902 (#476) | RD 100 | GP 21 |
2025 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-13 | @ | Roger Williams | L | 72 - 105 |
| 2024-11-20 | @ | Connecticut Col. | W | 59 - 54 |
| 2024-11-22 | vs | MCLA | W | 86 - 83 |
| 2024-11-23 | vs | Eastern Conn. St. | L | 48 - 57 |
| 2024-11-26 | vs | Mitchell | W | 109 - 99 |
| 2024-12-04 | vs | Merchant Marine | L | 56 - 67 |
| 2024-12-07 | vs | Emerson | W | 74 - 65 |
| 2024-12-11 | @ | Sarah Lawrence | W | 77 - 61 |
| 2024-12-20 | vs | Ursinus | L | 71 - 73 |
| 2024-12-21 | vs | Roanoke | L | 57 - 81 |
| 2025-01-08 | @ | WPI | L | 60 - 73 |
| 2025-01-11 | vs | Clark (MA) | W | 77 - 75 |
| 2025-01-14 | @ | MIT | L | 97 - 98 |
| 2025-01-16 | vs | Springfield | W | 85 - 76 |
| 2025-01-18 | @ | Salve Regina | L | 53 - 55 |
| 2025-01-21 | vs | Wheaton (MA) | L | 64 - 70 |
| 2025-01-23 | vs | Babson | L | 72 - 74 |
| 2025-01-29 | @ | Emerson | L | 63 - 105 |
| 2025-02-01 | vs | WPI | L | 74 - 75 |
| 2025-02-05 | @ | Clark (MA) | L | 50 - 68 |
| 2025-02-08 | vs | MIT | W | 84 - 68 |
| 2025-02-12 | @ | Springfield | L | 80 - 93 |
| 2025-02-15 | @ | Wheaton (MA) | W | 80 - 70 |
| 2025-02-19 | vs | Salve Regina | W | 72 - 68 |
| 2025-02-22 | @ | Babson | L | 59 - 77 |
| 2025-02-25 | @ | Babson | W | 80 - 69 |
| 2025-02-27 | @ | Clark (MA) | L | 53 - 71 |
2025 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Farrell | - | 26 | 25.0 | 14.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 9.8 | 12.8 | -182 | -7.0 | -20.5 | 51.4 | 35.1 | 81.2 | -0.25 | 60.9 | 53.9 |
| Declan Rooney | - | 24 | 31.0 | 14.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 12.4 | 9.5 | -92 | -5.1 | -8.8 | 42.4 | 29.2 | 83.8 | 0.47 | 52.3 | 48.0 |
| Timmy Mulvey | - | 1 | 25.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 128 | 5.6 | 14.6 | 54.5 | 40.0 | 0 | 2.57 | 63.6 | 63.6 |
| Ben Yagey | - | 26 | 22.4 | 9.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | -89 | -5.2 | -10.1 | 41.6 | 30.1 | 81.8 | -1.18 | 51.9 | 48.1 |
| Nate Amado | - | 1 | 22.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 16.0 | 28 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 1.16 | 82.0 | 75.0 |
| Elijah Parent | - | 24 | 25.7 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 4.2 | -186 | -7.2 | -21.1 | 36.8 | 36.0 | 96.0 | -0.61 | 50.0 | 46.2 |
| Tyler Lauder | - | 1 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 74 | 3.9 | 18.8 | 66.7 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.57 | 81.0 | 66.7 |
| Trevor Parks | - | 26 | 21.0 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 4.2 | -94 | -4.1 | -13.6 | 39.5 | 41.7 | 75.0 | 0.98 | 57.7 | 57.0 |
| Cameron Brown | - | 26 | 16.0 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 9.3 | -5 | -0.4 | -1.3 | 46.3 | 0.0 | 62.2 | 0.74 | 52.4 | 46.3 |
| Colin Huang | - | 21 | 19.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | -59 | -3.9 | -12.9 | 30.9 | 21.6 | 75.8 | 0.38 | 46.6 | 35.1 |
| Jordan Frazer | - | 23 | 14.7 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | -52 | -5.2 | -391.2 | 32.5 | 27.5 | 60.9 | -0.82 | 39.7 | 37.2 |
| Timmy O'Toole | - | 1 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 93 | 3.9 | 12.3 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.21 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Alex Stoddard | - | 1 | 19.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 28 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 16.7 | 20.0 | 0 | 0.66 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Aiden Dabbondanza | - | 25 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | -119 | -9.9 | -207.6 | 40.4 | 21.4 | 83.3 | -0.27 | 48.8 | 43.6 |
| Bryce VanderWiere | - | 21 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | -10 | -1.4 | -11.6 | 58.8 | 0 | 25.0 | -0.11 | 57.3 | 58.8 |
| Vaughn Foster | - | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 37 | 2.2 | 15.6 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.44 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Logan Murphy | - | 1 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 89 | 6.8 | 187.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.34 | 17.0 | 0.0 |
| Max Purushothaman | - | 1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4 | 0.7 | 13.4 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.53 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Mark Woolhouse | - | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 3.0 | 84.2 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.04 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Adryan Herron | - | 20 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -24 | -6.0 | -27.4 | 31.2 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.18 | 42.9 | 31.2 |
| Christian Rodgers | - | 25 | 8.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 16.7 | 83.3 | - | 35.7 | 29.2 |
| Walker Corbin | - | 23 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | -31 | -2.4 | -74.2 | 25.0 | 15.4 | 80.0 | -0.41 | 36.0 | 30.0 |
| Tyler Henderson | - | 24 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -36 | -3.6 | -89.6 | 33.3 | 25.0 | 0 | -0.45 | 41.7 | 41.7 |
| Will Briggs | - | 22 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -42 | -6.0 | -111.3 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 50.0 | -0.48 | 41.0 | 37.5 |
| Aidan Horan | - | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1 | -0.2 | -2.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.48 | 0 | 0 |
| Theo Lamb | - | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 18 | 2.2 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.56 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG