Coast Guard Bears
Model Outputs
2025-2026 latest available
No materialized model snapshot for 2024 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 849 (#580) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 874 (#526) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1035 (#228) | HCA +56 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 906 (#666) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -15.9 (#321) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +21.1 (#114) | HCA +3.0 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -11.5 (#553) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.289 (#606) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.216 (#525) | AdjNet -11.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.207 (#527) | AdjNet -11.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.317 (#520) | AdjO 72.7 | AdjD 81.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.471 (#474) | AdjO 74.7 | AdjD 75.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.347 (#631) | AdjO 74.0 | AdjD 80.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.679 (#231) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.265 (#610) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.676 (#227) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.275 (#613) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 898 (#475) | RD 100 | GP 21 |
2024 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-06 | @ | Quinnipiac | L | 48 - 116 |
| 2023-11-08 | @ | Sarah Lawrence | W | 70 - 57 |
| 2023-11-15 | vs | Roger Williams | W | 84 - 76 |
| 2023-11-17 | vs | CCNY | W | 76 - 72 |
| 2023-11-18 | vs | Westfield St. | L | 72 - 86 |
| 2023-11-21 | @ | Mitchell | W | 79 - 63 |
| 2023-11-29 | vs | Connecticut Col. | L | 58 - 68 |
| 2023-12-02 | @ | Merchant Marine | W | 78 - 64 |
| 2023-12-09 | @ | Emerson | W | 84 - 77 |
| 2023-12-29 | @ | Baruch | W | 59 - 50 |
| 2023-12-30 | @ | St. Mary's (MD) | W | 83 - 59 |
| 2024-01-03 | vs | WPI | L | 54 - 73 |
| 2024-01-06 | @ | Clark (MA) | L | 64 - 76 |
| 2024-01-09 | vs | MIT | W | 109 - 84 |
| 2024-01-11 | @ | Springfield | W | 71 - 67 |
| 2024-01-13 | vs | Salve Regina | L | 73 - 85 |
| 2024-01-16 | @ | Wheaton (MA) | W | 71 - 68 |
| 2024-01-18 | @ | Babson | L | 75 - 76 |
| 2024-01-24 | vs | Emerson | L | 65 - 83 |
| 2024-01-27 | @ | WPI | L | 67 - 74 |
| 2024-01-31 | vs | Clark (MA) | W | 82 - 76 |
| 2024-02-03 | @ | MIT | L | 81 - 97 |
| 2024-02-07 | vs | Springfield | W | 76 - 71 |
| 2024-02-10 | vs | Wheaton (MA) | L | 60 - 75 |
| 2024-02-14 | @ | Salve Regina | W | 90 - 85 |
| 2024-02-17 | vs | Babson | W | 67 - 55 |
| 2024-02-20 | @ | Babson | L | 76 - 87 |
2024 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steph Baxter | - | 2 | 32.5 | 21.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 17.0 | 8.5 | 12 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 41.2 | 35.7 | 75.0 | 1.01 | 53.5 | 48.5 |
| Nate Amado | - | 2 | 30.5 | 20.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 17.0 | -26 | -4.3 | -6.8 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 83.3 | 0.04 | 61.6 | 55.4 |
| DeMarcus Spivey | - | 1 | 38.0 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | -2 | -1.0 | -1.8 | 46.7 | 40.0 | 33.3 | 0.41 | 51.0 | 53.3 |
| Mitch Shettles | - | 23 | 24.2 | 13.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 11 | 0.9 | 22.2 | 48.2 | 47.4 | 81.2 | 0.04 | 64.1 | 62.4 |
| Declan Rooney | - | 23 | 27.6 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 9 | 4.5 | 15.0 | 40.1 | 30.7 | 78.7 | 0.26 | 51.3 | 47.8 |
| Clark Castleberry | - | 1 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | -22 | -2.2 | -26.3 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.06 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Elijah Parent | - | 24 | 26.9 | 9.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 8.2 | 5.9 | -55 | -4.6 | -54.7 | 47.4 | 39.5 | 85.7 | 0.53 | 58.0 | 56.1 |
| Ben Yagey | - | 24 | 22.9 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 7.2 | 5.3 | -12 | -6.0 | -26.6 | 44.3 | 32.3 | 81.8 | -0.14 | 55.5 | 53.4 |
| Luke Farrell | - | 24 | 18.4 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 4.8 | 10.8 | -117 | -9.8 | -153.9 | 54.3 | 40.0 | 73.2 | -0.0 | 61.8 | 55.2 |
| Jordan Frazer | - | 24 | 22.8 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 8.3 | 2.9 | -55 | -4.6 | -41.3 | 34.0 | 33.8 | 73.1 | 0.74 | 43.0 | 40.8 |
| Mark Woolhouse | - | 2 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 7.5 | -4 | -0.4 | -3.2 | 85.7 | 75.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 107.1 | 107.1 |
| Cameron Brown | - | 24 | 21.7 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 59.3 | 0.58 | 44.0 | 40.0 |
| Bryce Bristow | - | 1 | 28.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | -8 | -4.0 | -7.1 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.31 | 61.5 | 50.0 |
| Timmy O'Toole | - | 1 | 32.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 49 | 3.5 | 14.7 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 0.13 | 41.0 | 33.3 |
| Jake Hatch | - | 1 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.23 | 56.3 | 50.0 |
| Aidan Horan | - | 2 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 5.5 | -12 | -1.3 | -5.4 | 42.9 | 40.0 | 100.0 | -0.03 | 63.5 | 57.1 |
| Trevor Parks | - | 24 | 20.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 5.7 | 2.9 | -54 | -4.5 | -40.3 | 31.6 | 25.2 | 46.2 | 0.75 | 41.6 | 41.2 |
| Caleb Hutchins | - | 1 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | -17 | -8.5 | -16.7 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Tyler Lauder | - | 1 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 39 | 2.4 | 13.3 | 33.3 | 0 | 50.0 | 1.05 | 38.7 | 33.3 |
| Adryan Herron | - | 23 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4 | 2.0 | 16.7 | 41.7 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -0.37 | 49.0 | 41.7 |
| Walker Corbin | - | 19 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 23.8 | 27.8 | 100.0 | - | 41.7 | 35.7 |
| Mick Cook | - | 1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 56.8 | 0 |
| Parker Mason | - | 2 | 8.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.1 | -7.0 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.67 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| Bryce VanderWiere | - | 19 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | -12 | -6.0 | -32.7 | 66.7 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.24 | 68.9 | 66.7 |
| Christian Rodgers | - | 23 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 30.8 | 33.3 | 37.5 | - | 36.3 | 34.6 |
| Jahi Fleet | - | 23 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 2 | 2.0 | 80.0 | 18.2 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.55 | 18.2 | 18.2 |
| Nathan Aime | - | 21 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Brandon Allison | - | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jake Peterson | - | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1 | -0.1 | -5.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.49 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG