Coast Guard Bears
Model Outputs
2025-2026 latest available
No materialized model snapshot for 2023 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 849 (#580) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 874 (#526) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1035 (#228) | HCA +56 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 906 (#666) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -15.9 (#321) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +21.1 (#114) | HCA +3.0 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -11.5 (#553) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.289 (#606) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.216 (#525) | AdjNet -11.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.207 (#527) | AdjNet -11.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.317 (#520) | AdjO 72.7 | AdjD 81.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.471 (#474) | AdjO 74.7 | AdjD 75.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.347 (#631) | AdjO 74.0 | AdjD 80.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.679 (#231) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.265 (#610) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.676 (#227) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.275 (#613) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 902 (#476) | RD 100 | GP 21 |
2023 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-11 | @ | VTSU Castleton | L | 54 - 64 |
| 2022-11-12 | @ | St. Joseph's (ME) | L | 69 - 81 |
| 2022-11-16 | @ | Roger Williams | L | 71 - 106 |
| 2022-11-18 | vs | St. Joseph's (Brkln) | W | 75 - 44 |
| 2022-11-19 | vs | Lehman | L | 57 - 65 |
| 2022-11-30 | @ | Connecticut Col. | L | 63 - 81 |
| 2022-12-03 | vs | Merchant Marine | W | 84 - 62 |
| 2022-12-07 | vs | Mitchell | L | 66 - 80 |
| 2022-12-18 | @ | Fairfield | L | 45 - 86 |
| 2022-12-29 | vs | SUNY Maritime | L | 68 - 77 |
| 2022-12-30 | vs | CCNY | L | 65 - 75 |
| 2023-01-04 | vs | Wheaton (MA) | W | 75 - 74 |
| 2023-01-07 | vs | Emerson | L | 76 - 81 |
| 2023-01-11 | vs | MIT | L | 68 - 70 |
| 2023-01-14 | @ | Clark (MA) | W | 74 - 68 |
| 2023-01-18 | @ | Springfield | L | 73 - 85 |
| 2023-01-21 | vs | Babson | L | 60 - 79 |
| 2023-01-25 | @ | WPI | L | 49 - 77 |
| 2023-01-28 | @ | Wheaton (MA) | L | 60 - 99 |
| 2023-02-01 | vs | Clark (MA) | L | 66 - 79 |
| 2023-02-04 | @ | MIT | L | 83 - 86 |
| 2023-02-08 | @ | Emerson | L | 67 - 73 |
| 2023-02-11 | vs | WPI | L | 62 - 69 |
| 2023-02-15 | @ | Babson | L | 58 - 87 |
| 2023-02-18 | vs | Springfield | L | 65 - 92 |
2023 Roster
No roster data available for this season.