Clarion
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 996 (#161) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1066 (#124) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 987 (#360) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +6.0 (#152) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +5.5 (#234) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.452 (#195) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.301 (#256) | NetEff -7.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.545 (#216) | AdjNet +1.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.546 (#220) | AdjNet +1.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.527 (#218) | AdjO 78.2 | AdjD 77.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.575 (#176) | AdjO 78.2 | AdjD 74.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.617 (#219) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.607 (#225) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1073 (#157) | RD 98 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | West Liberty | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Wheeling | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Frostburg St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Lake Erie | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-24 | vs | Penn St.-Fayette | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Daemen | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Roberts Wesleyan | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Millersville | L | 68 - 75 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Lock Haven | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | East Stroudsburg | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Kutztown | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-21 | @ | West Chester | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Shepherd | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Shippensburg | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Slippery Rock | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Seton Hill | W | 87 - 85 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | California (PA) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Pitt.-Johnstown | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Indiana (PA) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Gannon | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Edinboro | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Seton Hill | W | 82 - 76 |
| 2026-02-11 | @ | Slippery Rock | L | 78 - 80 |
| 2026-02-14 | @ | California (PA) | L | 86 - 103 |
| 2026-02-18 | @ | Edinboro | W | 92 - 76 |
| 2026-02-21 | @ | Indiana (PA) | L | 75 - 96 |
| 2026-02-25 | vs | Gannon | L | 73 - 124 |
| 2026-02-28 | @ | Pitt.-Johnstown | L | 83 - 85 |
2026 Roster
No roster data available for this season.