Chestnut Hill
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1033 (#162) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 981 (#298) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 975 (#511) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -7.9 (#235) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -2.6 (#401) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.543 (#342) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 1.000 (#11) | NetEff +74.9 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.366 (#312) | NetEff -4.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.330 (#460) | AdjNet -6.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.331 (#460) | AdjNet -5.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.421 (#456) | AdjO 64.8 | AdjD 68.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.440 (#485) | AdjO 62.8 | AdjD 65.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.375 (#470) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.396 (#453) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 961 (#288) | RD 104 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | @ | Monmouth | L | 42 - 81 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Molloy | L | 72 - 85 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Queens (NY) | W | 69 - 57 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | D'Youville | L | 61 - 76 |
| 2025-11-23 | @ | Daemen | L | 54 - 77 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Post | W | 78 - 57 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs | Shippensburg | W | 89 - 76 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Goldey-Beacom | W | 81 - 73 |
| 2025-12-05 | vs | Seton Hill | L | 71 - 93 |
| 2025-12-09 | vs | Holy Family | L | 64 - 74 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Dominican (NY) | W | 75 - 71 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Drexel | L | 38 - 95 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Felician | L | 48 - 73 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Bridgeport | W | 79 - 54 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Georgian Court | W | 67 - 44 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Caldwell | L | 51 - 82 |
| 2026-01-20 | vs | Jefferson | W | 75 - 69 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Post | L | 56 - 67 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Goldey-Beacom | W | 91 - 50 |
| 2026-02-03 | @ | Holy Family | L | 54 - 72 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Dominican (NY) | L | 0 - 0 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annie Jackson | - | 2 | 29.0 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 61 | 2.9 | 21.0 | 43.8 | 47.4 | 100.0 | 0.82 | 59.3 | 57.8 |
| Sara Tamoun | - | 20 | 32.1 | 13.8 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 11.7 | 11.8 | -11 | -0.7 | -3.3 | 40.6 | 36.1 | 86.8 | -0.39 | 53.4 | 48.9 |
| Tiayo Adelekan | - | 18 | 21.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 8.3 | 9.8 | -33 | -2.4 | -11.8 | 51.7 | 100.0 | 59.4 | -0.57 | 54.5 | 52.0 |
| Tikyra Miller | - | 20 | 23.6 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 7.6 | 2.5 | -75 | -5.4 | -36.2 | 36.8 | 27.3 | 80.0 | -2.15 | 44.5 | 37.8 |
| Tamia Washington | - | 20 | 18.8 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 7.8 | 2.1 | -98 | -7.5 | -66.3 | 31.4 | 30.8 | 64.9 | -0.7 | 43.5 | 40.4 |
| Sabria Mann | - | 20 | 21.7 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 6.2 | 4.0 | -72 | -5.5 | -27.8 | 38.7 | 14.3 | 43.6 | -1.34 | 40.7 | 39.5 |
| Kourin Carew | - | 15 | 14.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 5.2 | 3.6 | -58 | -4.5 | -63.9 | 32.1 | 10.0 | 83.9 | 1.76 | 42.0 | 32.7 |
| Anahita Jackson | - | 16 | 15.4 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 6.6 | 2.1 | -31 | -2.8 | -34.1 | 23.6 | 21.8 | 63.6 | -0.88 | 32.8 | 29.2 |
| Kaya Mobley | - | 20 | 23.6 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -11 | -0.8 | -4.4 | 32.5 | 20.6 | 46.2 | 1.5 | 37.9 | 36.9 |
| Bryce Harvey-Carr | - | 18 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 25 | 1.9 | 30.4 | 30.8 | 27.3 | 70.0 | 1.71 | 42.8 | 36.5 |
| Anaisah Malone | - | 19 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 37.9 | 18.8 | 20.0 | 0.46 | 38.7 | 40.5 |
| JoJo Mills | - | 7 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -23 | -3.8 | -35.2 | 35.7 | 40.0 | 33.3 | -1.38 | 42.1 | 42.9 |
| Ayrianna Sumpter | - | 20 | 9.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 | -22 | -1.7 | -30.3 | 29.4 | 0.0 | 63.6 | 0.2 | 33.1 | 29.4 |
| Bry Hicks | - | 11 | 7.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | -26 | -2.9 | -114.3 | 31.8 | 22.2 | 50.0 | 1.87 | 37.2 | 36.4 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG