🐻⬇️🏀

Central Wash.

Also known as: Central Wash.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1327 (#4) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1352 (#4) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1182 (#25) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +26.6 (#6) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +15.5 (#147) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.832 (#220) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +26.7 More → 0.966 (#98) NetEff +26.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +22.1 More → 0.927 (#179) AdjNet +22.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +22.3 More → 0.933 (#184) AdjNet +22.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 73.8 | AdjD 59.6 More → 0.785 (#183) AdjO 73.8 | AdjD 59.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.8 | AdjD 54.8 More → 0.782 (#37) AdjO 68.8 | AdjD 54.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.878 (#44) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.868 (#45) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 110 | GP 23 More → 1296 (#15) RD 110 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Cal St. East Bay W 58 - 51
2025-11-15 @ Cal Poly Humboldt W 73 - 66
2025-11-21 @ Vanguard W 66 - 58
2025-11-22 @ Westmont W 58 - 41
2025-11-28 vs San Fran. St. W 65 - 44
2025-11-29 vs Mary W 89 - 82
2025-12-06 @ Northwest Nazarene W 77 - 63
2025-12-13 @ Cal Poly Pomona L 67 - 70
2025-12-15 @ Cal State LA W 74 - 59
2025-12-16 @ Cal St. San Marcos W 68 - 50
2025-12-20 vs Walla Walla W 112 - 28
2026-01-01 @ Alas. Fairbanks W 69 - 49
2026-01-03 @ Alas. Anchorage W 77 - 65
2026-01-10 vs Western Wash. W 75 - 58
2026-01-15 @ Seattle Pacific W 88 - 56
2026-01-17 @ Mont. St. Billings W 91 - 57
2026-01-22 vs Saint Martin's W 57 - 54
2026-01-24 vs Western Ore. W 57 - 49
2026-01-29 vs Alas. Anchorage L 50 - 60
2026-01-31 vs Alas. Fairbanks W 92 - 40
2026-02-05 @ Western Wash. L 44 - 66
2026-02-07 @ Simon Fraser W 84 - 76

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Asher Cai - 22 34.5 23.3 6.0 4.3 1.4 0.3 3.3 16.4 15.6 262 11.9 40.5 45.6 36.8 89.2 1.08 60.3 52.9
Capri Sims - 22 30.0 13.9 8.4 2.7 0.9 0.7 2.1 10.6 13.9 211 9.2 43.3 58.8 9.1 54.7 0.54 59.5 59.2
Fiona Snashall - 22 29.1 10.8 9.4 2.4 1.2 1.3 1.7 8.4 15.0 223 8.9 47.7 50.5 41.7 50.0 1.36 59.8 60.1
Annalee Coronado - 12 21.3 8.2 2.1 1.9 0.7 0.3 2.2 5.9 5.1 86 7.2 32.5 50.7 30.0 76.9 -2.29 59.4 54.9
Sierra Eddie - 21 21.8 5.0 1.8 2.4 0.4 0.2 2.0 4.6 3.2 243 11.0 67.6 35.1 34.5 85.7 3.43 52.0 50.5
Kayla Thornton - 22 25.9 4.8 2.2 2.5 1.2 0.2 1.8 5.5 3.7 165 7.2 29.8 40.0 9.1 58.3 -0.16 42.3 41.2
Emily Shaw - 22 10.9 3.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.0 119 5.4 136.8 40.4 34.0 75.0 -0.73 56.2 54.4
Rylee Leishman - 22 18.3 2.3 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.9 1.5 3.3 51 2.2 16.2 39.4 43.3 78.6 0.07 63.8 59.1
Lylah Spring - 11 6.0 1.9 2.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 2.0 2.2 34 3.1 28.1 40.9 16.7 33.3 0.65 42.6 43.2
Aliyah Finch - 21 6.7 1.9 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.6 2.5 20 1.0 14.2 51.5 0.0 60.0 -1.3 53.5 51.5
Nicole Wertenberger - 18 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.1 22 1.2 31.9 41.7 46.7 75.0 0.57 58.2 56.2
Jordy DeMott - 17 8.4 1.1 2.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.1 52 2.9 54.6 31.8 25.0 50.0 0.12 37.9 36.4

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG