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Carlow

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2017
Also known as: Carlow
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 917 (#382) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 739 (#565) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 830 (#664) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -44.8 (#420) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -43.6 (#704) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.058 (#662) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -45.9 More → 0.001 (#584) NetEff -45.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -45.6 More → 0.005 (#685) AdjNet -45.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -46.7 More → 0.004 (#685) AdjNet -46.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 48.6 | AdjD 78.9 More → 0.060 (#692) AdjO 48.6 | AdjD 78.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 45.1 | AdjD 76.9 More → 0.053 (#719) AdjO 45.1 | AdjD 76.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.016 (#719) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.019 (#717) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 111 | GP 21 More → 655 (#557) RD 111 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ Grove City L 31 - 84
2025-11-11 vs Chatham L 28 - 92
2025-11-15 @ Franciscan L 42 - 53
2025-11-18 vs Waynesburg L 56 - 81
2025-11-21 @ Mt. St. Joseph L 32 - 88
2025-11-22 @ Trine L 21 - 112
2025-11-25 @ Carnegie Mellon L 24 - 94
2025-12-03 vs Mount Aloysius L 54 - 98
2025-12-10 @ La Roche L 36 - 88
2025-12-13 @ Hilbert W 63 - 60
2025-12-16 vs Thiel L 49 - 65
2026-01-10 vs Pitt.-Greensburg L 0 - 0
2026-01-14 @ Penn St.-Altoona L 51 - 79
2026-01-17 vs Pitt.-Bradford W 72 - 43
2026-01-24 @ Penn St.-Behrend L 59 - 90
2026-01-28 vs La Roche L 51 - 93
2026-01-31 vs Alfred St. L 49 - 61
2026-02-02 vs Pitt.-Greensburg W 55 - 53
2026-02-04 @ Penn St.-Altoona L 38 - 80
2026-02-07 @ Pitt.-Bradford W 90 - 66

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Alexis Ewig - 6 33.4 14.8 4.7 2.5 2.7 0.2 5.5 11.2 8.2 -14 -2.0 -5.3 41.8 37.5 75.0 1.16 54.9 48.5
Lexi Ewig - 7 33.7 11.3 7.3 3.4 1.7 0.9 4.3 13.4 6.9 -17 -3.4 -138.8 29.8 33.3 73.9 0.3 37.9 33.0
Courtney Martin - 5 21.6 9.2 7.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 3.0 10.8 5.4 -32 -10.7 -50.0 33.3 28.6 61.5 -0.66 38.5 35.2
Emari Stinnette - 18 23.8 8.5 5.6 1.6 0.9 0.7 3.7 9.3 4.3 -79 -5.3 -62.4 29.9 23.9 66.7 0.27 39.3 33.2
Alexis Toth - 17 25.8 6.3 5.1 0.9 1.1 0.4 1.8 7.9 4.2 -142 -10.1 -74.7 32.1 17.6 39.1 -1.36 34.7 33.2
Gia Rosensteel - 17 28.3 6.3 6.1 1.1 2.1 0.3 5.5 12.2 -1.9 -105 -7.5 -34.5 18.8 17.2 38.1 0.07 24.7 23.9
Audry Clingenpeel - 19 25.9 5.9 3.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 3.2 10.0 -1.4 -176 -11.7 -72.9 19.5 16.7 69.0 -1.45 27.9 24.5
Josie Horne - 19 31.0 5.6 6.7 1.1 1.0 0.5 2.3 6.4 6.2 -168 -10.5 -72.6 33.1 13.0 66.7 1.11 39.1 34.3
Jada Drummond - 5 19.7 3.8 2.2 1.8 0.8 0.0 6.0 5.0 -2.4 -12 -4.0 -14.7 16.0 0.0 78.6 -0.1 30.5 16.0
Liberty Picarelli - 18 11.3 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.3 3.3 0.6 -83 -5.5 -55.2 23.7 26.8 66.7 -2.07 36.6 33.1
Maddie Finley - 8 14.2 1.5 2.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 1.9 4.0 -1.6 -115 -23.0 -232.5 9.4 0.0 40.0 0.1 15.5 9.4
Libby Michalski - 19 13.7 0.8 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.9 -126 -8.4 -86.7 36.8 0.0 50.0 -0.68 38.5 36.8
Mya Waage - 5 9.0 0.4 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.2 3.2 - - - 16.7 0.0 0 - 16.7 16.7
Julia Ogrodowski - 13 8.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.3 -0.2 -79 -7.2 -148.5 5.9 0.0 100.0 -1.2 11.2 5.9

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG