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Capital

Also known as: Capital
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 910 (#516) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 925 (#461) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 897 (#679) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -1.4 (#212) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -4.9 (#433) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.378 (#544) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +30.9 More → 0.981 (#5) NetEff +30.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -4.5 More → 0.373 (#412) AdjNet -4.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -4.7 More → 0.366 (#410) AdjNet -4.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 78.4 More → 0.421 (#415) AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 78.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 79.3 | AdjD 80.3 More → 0.477 (#463) AdjO 79.3 | AdjD 80.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.396 (#491) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.398 (#496) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 23 More → 910 (#469) RD 97 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-06 @ Cleveland St. - Incomplete score
2025-11-08 vs Earlham - Incomplete score
2025-11-12 vs Kenyon - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 vs Adrian - Incomplete score
2025-11-19 vs Denison - Incomplete score
2025-11-22 vs Wittenberg - Incomplete score
2025-11-25 @ Ohio Wesleyan - Incomplete score
2025-12-03 vs Muskingum - Incomplete score
2025-12-06 vs Marietta - Incomplete score
2025-12-13 @ Ohio Northern - Incomplete score
2025-12-16 vs Wash. & Jeff. - Incomplete score
2025-12-19 vs Baldwin Wallace - Incomplete score
2025-12-30 vs Alma - Incomplete score
2026-01-03 @ Franciscan - Incomplete score
2026-01-07 @ Wilmington (OH) - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 @ Otterbein - Incomplete score
2026-01-14 @ Mount Union - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 vs Heidelberg - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ Marietta - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 vs Wilmington (OH) - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 vs Ohio Northern - Incomplete score
2026-02-04 @ Muskingum - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 @ Baldwin Wallace - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Se'Ron Calloway-White - 21 28.2 17.5 4.9 1.7 1.1 0.4 1.8 12.3 11.5 36 1.7 8.3 52.7 34.7 74.5 2.21 61.3 57.6
McKane Finkenbine - 22 32.0 13.6 2.7 4.6 1.3 0.0 3.2 11.1 8.0 20 0.9 3.7 43.4 34.0 80.0 2.0 56.4 53.3
Dallas Tucker - 21 26.7 11.4 2.8 2.1 1.2 0.2 1.8 7.4 8.6 24 1.2 4.9 53.8 41.5 77.8 2.31 65.0 60.9
Julian Mitchell - 20 29.4 10.6 2.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.9 7.8 6.3 -42 -2.1 -8.6 42.3 35.6 93.5 -3.58 59.9 53.8
Chris Mitchell - 22 26.7 9.9 9.5 2.2 1.5 0.5 2.5 8.6 12.5 -15 -0.7 -3.7 50.5 30.0 54.8 0.54 53.5 52.9
Cade Davies - 22 17.1 6.6 2.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.8 4.7 4.7 -77 -3.5 -28.6 47.6 31.1 80.5 -1.42 59.9 54.4
Brody Gowen - 13 16.2 6.2 4.9 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.8 2.9 8.9 41 3.2 12.2 60.5 0 68.0 1.77 66.7 60.5
Torrien Perkins - 10 18.3 6.1 2.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 1.4 7.2 2.2 -56 -5.1 -56.1 31.9 21.4 69.2 -2.56 39.2 36.1
Kamran Ensley - 19 16.6 3.8 2.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 3.0 4.5 -24 -1.3 -14.5 45.6 28.6 70.4 -2.84 53.0 47.4
Tristyn Ambrose-Pearce - 21 8.3 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.7 -47 -2.2 -42.7 50.0 12.5 0.0 -2.14 50.2 51.4
Sean Spicer - 7 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.1 4 0.8 82.8 80.0 0 0 - 80.0 80.0
Logan Woloshan - 15 3.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.0 -34 -2.4 -275.7 25.0 26.7 0 -0.71 37.5 37.5
Amani Dickerson - 4 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
Deron Jennings - 7 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 -0.1 4 0.8 82.8 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Colton Bruny - 9 3.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 -16 -2.3 -138.6 0.0 0.0 50.0 -1.43 26.6 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG