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Capital

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Capital
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 876 (#558) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 917 (#470) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 897 (#679) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -2.9 (#157) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -4.9 (#433) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.378 (#544) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +30.9 More → 0.981 (#5) NetEff +30.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -4.5 More → 0.373 (#412) AdjNet -4.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -4.7 More → 0.366 (#410) AdjNet -4.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 78.4 More → 0.421 (#415) AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 78.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 79.3 | AdjD 80.3 More → 0.477 (#463) AdjO 79.3 | AdjD 80.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.397 (#490) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.398 (#496) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 23 More → 911 (#473) RD 97 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-06 @ Cleveland St. L 70 - 71
2025-11-08 vs Earlham W 72 - 63
2025-11-12 vs Kenyon W 80 - 74
2025-11-15 vs Adrian W 79 - 56
2025-11-19 vs Denison W 78 - 67
2025-11-22 vs Wittenberg L 63 - 67
2025-11-25 @ Ohio Wesleyan L 69 - 77
2025-12-03 vs Muskingum L 78 - 95
2025-12-06 vs Marietta W 95 - 87
2025-12-13 @ Ohio Northern L 83 - 87
2025-12-16 vs Wash. & Jeff. L 73 - 79
2025-12-19 vs Baldwin Wallace L 76 - 79
2025-12-30 vs Alma W 91 - 79
2026-01-03 @ Franciscan L 74 - 92
2026-01-07 @ Wilmington (OH) L 89 - 94
2026-01-10 @ Otterbein L 74 - 85
2026-01-14 @ Mount Union L 78 - 91
2026-01-17 vs Heidelberg L 77 - 91
2026-01-24 @ Marietta W 94 - 71
2026-01-28 vs Wilmington (OH) L 93 - 101
2026-01-31 vs Ohio Northern L 69 - 73
2026-02-04 @ Muskingum W 97 - 79
2026-02-07 @ Baldwin Wallace L 77 - 90

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Se'Ron Calloway-White - 22 28.0 17.1 4.8 1.6 1.1 0.4 1.8 12.1 11.1 36 1.7 8.3 52.6 35.1 74.5 2.1 61.2 57.5
McKane Finkenbine - 23 32.1 13.7 2.7 4.7 1.3 0.0 3.2 11.3 8.0 20 0.9 3.7 43.2 34.2 80.0 2.49 56.2 53.3
Dallas Tucker - 22 26.4 11.1 2.7 2.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 7.4 8.2 24 1.2 4.9 53.1 41.4 77.8 1.72 64.6 60.5
Julian Mitchell - 21 29.4 10.3 2.9 1.1 0.7 0.1 1.0 7.9 6.3 -42 -2.1 -8.6 40.6 34.6 93.8 -0.04 58.0 51.8
Chris Mitchell - 23 26.5 10.0 9.6 2.1 1.5 0.5 2.6 8.6 12.6 -15 -0.7 -3.7 51.3 30.3 54.8 -2.06 54.4 53.8
Cade Davies - 23 17.1 6.5 2.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.7 4.7 4.8 -77 -3.5 -28.6 46.3 29.2 81.4 0.13 58.7 52.8
Brody Gowen - 13 16.2 6.2 4.9 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.8 2.9 8.9 41 3.2 12.2 60.5 0 68.0 0.51 66.7 60.5
Torrien Perkins - 11 18.1 6.1 2.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 1.3 7.0 2.4 -56 -5.1 -56.1 32.5 25.8 69.2 -3.3 40.5 37.7
Kamran Ensley - 20 16.9 4.2 2.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 3.0 4.8 -24 -1.3 -14.5 47.5 33.3 69.7 0.35 55.6 50.0
Tristyn Ambrose-Pearce - 22 8.6 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.5 -47 -2.2 -42.7 48.7 11.1 0.0 -3.9 48.9 50.0
Sean Spicer - 7 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.1 4 0.8 82.8 80.0 0 0 0.05 80.0 80.0
Logan Woloshan - 15 3.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.0 -34 -2.4 -275.7 25.0 26.7 0 -1.26 37.5 37.5
Amani Dickerson - 4 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
Deron Jennings - 7 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 -0.1 4 0.8 82.8 33.3 0 0 0.05 33.3 33.3
Colton Bruny - 9 3.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 -16 -2.3 -138.6 0.0 0.0 50.0 -0.91 26.6 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG