🐻⬇️🏀

California

Also known as: California
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 988 (#292) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1016 (#271) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 941 (#569) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +1.4 (#156) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +0.5 (#357) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.578 (#330) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +9.0 More → 0.738 (#304) AdjNet +9.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.2 More → 0.747 (#304) AdjNet +9.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.7 | AdjD 62.4 More → 0.638 (#295) AdjO 68.7 | AdjD 62.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.0 | AdjD 65.5 More → 0.465 (#437) AdjO 64.0 | AdjD 65.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.444 (#408) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.448 (#397) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 101 | GP 25 More → 980 (#276) RD 101 | GP 25

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ Northern Mich. L 57 - 66
2025-11-08 vs Minnesota St. L 53 - 98
2025-11-09 @ Ferris St. L 55 - 83
2025-11-14 @ Wheeling W 63 - 62
2025-11-15 @ West Liberty W 77 - 69
2025-11-19 vs Fairmont St. L 71 - 75
2025-11-22 @ Wilmington (DE) W 79 - 58
2025-11-23 @ West Chester L 36 - 64
2025-12-01 vs Ashland L 74 - 77
2025-12-06 @ Bloomsburg W 70 - 59
2025-12-13 @ Robert Morris L 44 - 72
2025-12-16 vs Shippensburg W 82 - 51
2025-12-20 @ Lock Haven L 60 - 77
2025-12-21 @ Mansfield W 83 - 62
2026-01-02 vs East Stroudsburg W 70 - 50
2026-01-03 vs Kutztown L 66 - 70
2026-01-10 vs Gannon L 46 - 82
2026-01-14 @ Clarion W 86 - 57
2026-01-17 vs Edinboro L 45 - 69
2026-01-24 @ Slippery Rock L 61 - 74
2026-01-28 @ Indiana (PA) L 66 - 97
2026-01-31 vs Pitt.-Johnstown W 82 - 58
2026-02-07 @ Gannon L 51 - 72

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kennedy Bankett - 21 29.4 15.0 3.6 1.0 1.7 0.3 3.0 10.3 8.4 -99 -4.3 -14.5 52.8 27.7 84.1 1.04 61.8 55.8
Alicia Young - 19 31.3 13.6 4.5 0.8 2.6 0.5 2.9 14.3 4.8 15 0.7 3.7 40.1 29.3 51.9 0.68 43.6 42.3
Trinity Balog - 23 27.3 10.4 2.4 2.4 0.7 0.1 2.6 8.6 4.9 -36 -1.5 -5.3 37.6 33.3 87.5 -0.44 52.5 44.9
Hope Hawkins - 23 22.7 8.9 5.9 0.7 1.0 0.5 2.6 8.2 6.1 23 1.0 3.8 46.6 0 51.8 1.47 48.0 46.6
Jalasia Hull - 16 21.6 7.3 2.4 0.8 1.3 0.4 1.8 5.5 4.9 -143 -8.4 -38.2 48.9 25.0 67.5 0.36 55.4 51.1
Kimaya Williams - 23 36.4 6.6 9.3 4.0 2.3 0.7 2.8 7.0 13.0 -44 -1.8 -6.2 38.3 20.0 50.0 0.84 41.2 39.2
Macy Sardone - 23 18.4 4.6 2.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.7 4.3 2.6 -48 -2.0 -15.5 35.0 32.7 81.8 -3.69 48.3 44.0
Mya Morgan - 14 16.0 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.8 3.9 0.0 -43 -2.9 -43.2 21.8 13.2 50.0 -3.24 26.8 26.4
Nina Shaw - 10 19.0 1.5 1.7 2.2 0.7 0.1 2.5 2.2 1.5 -9 -0.8 -4.6 27.3 40.0 50.0 1.66 32.8 31.8
Fanta Minteh - 7 5.3 1.4 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 - - - 50.0 0.0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Alayla Bivins - 13 7.0 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.5 1.5 0.6 0 0.0 0.0 31.6 0 80.0 0.17 37.7 31.6
Angel Henry - 5 4.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 -0.4 -8 -2.0 -19.7 22.2 25.0 0 -0.92 27.8 27.8
CJ Sabo - 8 4.4 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 -0.4 6 0.9 48.2 22.2 0 0 0.03 22.2 22.2
Yamilex Rodriguez - 9 4.8 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.7 -0.3 -27 -3.4 -59.8 16.7 0.0 100.0 -1.21 29.1 16.7
Skylar Still - 4 3.2 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.2 10 2.0 127.0 0 0 25.0 0.81 28.4 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG