California
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 988 (#292) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1016 (#271) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 941 (#569) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +1.4 (#156) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +0.5 (#357) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.578 (#330) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.738 (#304) | AdjNet +9.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.747 (#304) | AdjNet +9.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.638 (#295) | AdjO 68.7 | AdjD 62.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.465 (#437) | AdjO 64.0 | AdjD 65.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.444 (#408) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.448 (#397) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 980 (#276) | RD 101 | GP 25 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Northern Mich. | L | 57 - 66 |
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Minnesota St. | L | 53 - 98 |
| 2025-11-09 | @ | Ferris St. | L | 55 - 83 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Wheeling | W | 63 - 62 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | West Liberty | W | 77 - 69 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Fairmont St. | L | 71 - 75 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Wilmington (DE) | W | 79 - 58 |
| 2025-11-23 | @ | West Chester | L | 36 - 64 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs | Ashland | L | 74 - 77 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Bloomsburg | W | 70 - 59 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Robert Morris | L | 44 - 72 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | Shippensburg | W | 82 - 51 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Lock Haven | L | 60 - 77 |
| 2025-12-21 | @ | Mansfield | W | 83 - 62 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | East Stroudsburg | W | 70 - 50 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Kutztown | L | 66 - 70 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Gannon | L | 46 - 82 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Clarion | W | 86 - 57 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Edinboro | L | 45 - 69 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Slippery Rock | L | 61 - 74 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Indiana (PA) | L | 66 - 97 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Pitt.-Johnstown | W | 82 - 58 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Gannon | L | 51 - 72 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Bankett | - | 21 | 29.4 | 15.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 10.3 | 8.4 | -99 | -4.3 | -14.5 | 52.8 | 27.7 | 84.1 | 1.04 | 61.8 | 55.8 |
| Alicia Young | - | 19 | 31.3 | 13.6 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 14.3 | 4.8 | 15 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 40.1 | 29.3 | 51.9 | 0.68 | 43.6 | 42.3 |
| Trinity Balog | - | 23 | 27.3 | 10.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | -36 | -1.5 | -5.3 | 37.6 | 33.3 | 87.5 | -0.44 | 52.5 | 44.9 |
| Hope Hawkins | - | 23 | 22.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 23 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 46.6 | 0 | 51.8 | 1.47 | 48.0 | 46.6 |
| Jalasia Hull | - | 16 | 21.6 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 4.9 | -143 | -8.4 | -38.2 | 48.9 | 25.0 | 67.5 | 0.36 | 55.4 | 51.1 |
| Kimaya Williams | - | 23 | 36.4 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 13.0 | -44 | -1.8 | -6.2 | 38.3 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 0.84 | 41.2 | 39.2 |
| Macy Sardone | - | 23 | 18.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | -48 | -2.0 | -15.5 | 35.0 | 32.7 | 81.8 | -3.69 | 48.3 | 44.0 |
| Mya Morgan | - | 14 | 16.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 0.0 | -43 | -2.9 | -43.2 | 21.8 | 13.2 | 50.0 | -3.24 | 26.8 | 26.4 |
| Nina Shaw | - | 10 | 19.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | -9 | -0.8 | -4.6 | 27.3 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 1.66 | 32.8 | 31.8 |
| Fanta Minteh | - | 7 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Alayla Bivins | - | 13 | 7.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.6 | 0 | 80.0 | 0.17 | 37.7 | 31.6 |
| Angel Henry | - | 5 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -8 | -2.0 | -19.7 | 22.2 | 25.0 | 0 | -0.92 | 27.8 | 27.8 |
| CJ Sabo | - | 8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | -0.4 | 6 | 0.9 | 48.2 | 22.2 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 22.2 | 22.2 |
| Yamilex Rodriguez | - | 9 | 4.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.3 | -27 | -3.4 | -59.8 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -1.21 | 29.1 | 16.7 |
| Skylar Still | - | 4 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 10 | 2.0 | 127.0 | 0 | 0 | 25.0 | 0.81 | 28.4 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG