Cal St. San Marcos
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 877 (#466) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 932 (#385) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 811 (#668) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.7 (#128) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -16.1 (#570) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.384 (#408) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.961 (#100) | NetEff +24.0 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.191 (#367) | NetEff -10.8 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.729 (#310) | AdjNet +8.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.736 (#312) | AdjNet +8.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.620 (#315) | AdjO 66.7 | AdjD 61.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.230 (#653) | AdjO 55.8 | AdjD 69.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.175 (#613) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.175 (#623) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 766 (#494) | RD 93 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | @ | Nevada | L | 53 - 70 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ | San Diego St. | L | 35 - 95 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Azusa Pacific | W | 58 - 52 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Point Loma | W | 62 - 50 |
| 2025-11-28 | vs | Northwest Nazarene | L | 60 - 64 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Western Ore. | W | 68 - 66 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 61 - 52 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | L | 52 - 63 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | Central Wash. | L | 50 - 68 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 65 - 76 |
| 2025-12-21 | vs | Chico St. | L | 66 - 79 |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | UC Merced | W | 70 - 64 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 47 - 81 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Cal State LA | L | 73 - 83 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Cal St. Dom. Hills | L | 76 - 82 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | L | 52 - 74 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | San Fran. St. | L | 57 - 69 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Stanislaus St. | W | 56 - 53 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | UC Merced | L | 69 - 83 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 56 - 77 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | CSUSB | L | 52 - 63 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaity Haan | - | 21 | 28.4 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 11.1 | 11.3 | -74 | -3.7 | -14.6 | 46.4 | 40.7 | 68.0 | -1.24 | 52.3 | 48.7 |
| Tatum Tamashiro | - | 21 | 30.1 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 3.5 | -125 | -5.4 | -28.2 | 30.9 | 22.8 | 80.9 | -0.84 | 42.6 | 37.7 |
| Sophie Morales | - | 12 | 32.0 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 5.8 | -15 | -1.2 | -9.6 | 43.1 | 33.3 | 82.6 | 2.49 | 52.4 | 46.5 |
| Sydney Hani | - | 20 | 25.2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 6.7 | 7.8 | -23 | -1.1 | -6.0 | 39.6 | 40.6 | 65.7 | -2.31 | 47.5 | 44.4 |
| Maddie Leiva | - | 19 | 16.5 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 6.8 | 1.4 | -55 | -2.8 | -18.9 | 36.2 | 35.4 | 60.0 | -1.45 | 49.9 | 49.6 |
| Kate Bobadilla | - | 13 | 17.6 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 6.5 | -0.2 | -15 | -1.0 | -19.0 | 29.4 | 27.5 | 73.3 | 1.26 | 40.9 | 37.6 |
| Kristan Yumul | - | 21 | 25.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 5.9 | 2.4 | -89 | -4.2 | -18.4 | 32.5 | 32.6 | 45.5 | 0.88 | 44.2 | 43.9 |
| Portia Polo | - | 20 | 14.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | -70 | -3.5 | -18.6 | 31.1 | 15.8 | 84.2 | -2.93 | 41.1 | 33.6 |
| Kat Noa | - | 20 | 13.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | -91 | -4.5 | -50.6 | 31.9 | 23.5 | 70.0 | -0.78 | 37.3 | 34.7 |
| Kaitlyn Beall | - | 21 | 13.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | -42 | -1.9 | -19.4 | 41.3 | 0 | 52.9 | 1.51 | 43.3 | 41.3 |
| Lyric Richardson | - | 9 | 8.6 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 8 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 33.3 | 2.04 | 48.4 | 50.0 |
| Mylah Lewis | - | 14 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | -0.3 | -50 | -4.2 | -53.2 | 19.2 | 17.6 | 75.0 | -3.21 | 32.2 | 25.0 |
| Teanna Alaman | - | 6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 1.8 | 127.3 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.5 | 51.5 | 33.3 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG