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Cal St. San Marcos

Also known as: Cal St. San Marcos
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 766 (#508) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 865 (#457) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 811 (#668) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → -0.8 (#235) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -16.1 (#570) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.384 (#408) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +24.0 More → 0.961 (#100) NetEff +24.0
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -10.8 More → 0.191 (#367) NetEff -10.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +8.6 More → 0.729 (#310) AdjNet +8.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +8.7 More → 0.736 (#312) AdjNet +8.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.7 | AdjD 61.3 More → 0.620 (#315) AdjO 66.7 | AdjD 61.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 55.8 | AdjD 69.1 More → 0.230 (#653) AdjO 55.8 | AdjD 69.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.175 (#613) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.175 (#623) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 93 | GP 23 More → 780 (#479) RD 93 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 @ Nevada - Incomplete score
2025-11-08 @ San Diego St. - Incomplete score
2025-11-14 vs Azusa Pacific - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 vs Point Loma - Incomplete score
2025-11-28 vs Northwest Nazarene - Incomplete score
2025-11-29 vs Western Ore. - Incomplete score
2025-12-03 vs Cal St. Monterey Bay - Incomplete score
2025-12-06 @ Cal St. Monterey Bay - Incomplete score
2025-12-16 vs Central Wash. - Incomplete score
2025-12-19 vs Cal Poly Humboldt - Incomplete score
2025-12-21 vs Chico St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-02 @ UC Merced - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 @ Cal Poly Pomona - Incomplete score
2026-01-15 vs Cal State LA - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 vs Cal St. Dom. Hills - Incomplete score
2026-01-22 @ Cal St. East Bay - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ San Fran. St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-29 vs Stanislaus St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 vs UC Merced - Incomplete score
2026-02-05 vs Cal Poly Pomona - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 vs CSUSB - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kaity Haan - 19 29.1 14.1 8.6 0.6 1.6 0.9 2.2 11.8 11.8 -74 -3.7 -14.6 46.4 44.0 67.6 -0.1 52.3 48.9
Tatum Tamashiro - 19 30.6 9.2 3.6 1.1 1.6 0.1 2.3 9.8 3.6 -125 -5.4 -28.2 31.2 23.1 79.1 -3.03 42.7 37.9
Sophie Morales - 10 33.7 7.8 4.0 4.4 1.8 0.0 5.2 6.3 6.5 -15 -1.2 -9.6 44.4 35.7 81.0 1.55 54.0 48.4
Sydney Hani - 18 25.6 7.6 7.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 2.3 6.9 8.3 -23 -1.1 -6.0 41.1 37.9 65.7 0.15 48.8 45.6
Maddie Leiva - 17 17.0 6.9 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.3 7.0 1.2 -55 -2.8 -18.9 35.3 33.3 60.0 -1.52 48.3 47.9
Kate Bobadilla - 11 17.4 6.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 6.7 0.5 -15 -1.0 -19.0 31.1 30.2 73.3 1.69 43.4 39.9
Kristan Yumul - 19 26.5 5.7 2.4 1.9 0.8 0.1 2.1 6.1 2.8 -89 -4.2 -18.4 33.0 33.3 45.5 0.31 45.1 44.8
Portia Polo - 18 15.3 3.2 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.1 3.3 1.0 -70 -3.5 -18.6 31.7 15.8 84.2 -2.91 41.7 34.2
Kaitlyn Beall - 19 12.2 2.9 2.5 0.0 0.3 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.8 -42 -1.9 -19.4 41.8 0 60.0 -2.28 44.6 41.8
Kat Noa - 18 12.7 2.7 1.8 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 3.4 1.4 -91 -4.5 -50.6 32.3 23.1 62.5 -4.79 36.6 34.7
Lyric Richardson - 9 8.6 2.2 4.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.8 8 0.7 7.3 50.0 0 33.3 4.77 48.4 50.0
Mylah Lewis - 12 7.4 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.0 -50 -4.2 -53.2 18.2 20.0 75.0 -5.72 33.3 25.0
Teanna Alaman - 4 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 7 1.8 127.3 50.0 0.0 0 - 50.0 50.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG