Cal St. Monterey Bay
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1013 (#251) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 994 (#290) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 935 (#575) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.9 (#124) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -7.3 (#476) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.119 (#525) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 1.000 (#30) | NetEff +58.3 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.999 (#50) | NetEff +48.0 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.999 (#57) | NetEff +54.7 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.280 (#338) | NetEff -6.8 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.000 (#526) | NetEff -111.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.250 (#492) | AdjNet -9.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.249 (#495) | AdjNet -9.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.360 (#497) | AdjO 59.0 | AdjD 65.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.399 (#530) | AdjO 58.2 | AdjD 62.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.346 (#489) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.354 (#485) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 871 (#413) | RD 131 | GP 7 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | @ | San Fran. St. | L | 51 - 62 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | L | 67 - 70 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | UC Merced | W | 73 - 62 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Stanislaus St. | W | 82 - 49 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | CSUSB | W | 50 - 48 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 64 - 72 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Moreno Ortiz | - | 6 | 32.5 | 13.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 11.8 | 7.8 | -36 | -1.8 | -6.5 | 38.0 | 31.2 | 94.1 | -2.37 | 51.0 | 45.1 |
| Leah Sarabia | - | 6 | 26.5 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 8.8 | 8.3 | -46 | -2.7 | -10.0 | 45.3 | 18.2 | 66.7 | -1.56 | 50.3 | 47.2 |
| A'ajah Slocum | - | 6 | 36.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 9 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 43.3 | 16.7 | 45.5 | 2.14 | 45.5 | 45.0 |
| Cheyanne Whitfield | - | 4 | 23.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 7.2 | 7.8 | -14 | -1.4 | -5.3 | 37.9 | 20.0 | 92.9 | 2.14 | 51.2 | 39.7 |
| Riley Walls | - | 3 | 26.6 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 9.7 | 7.3 | -3 | -0.2 | -0.9 | 31.0 | 28.6 | 41.7 | -1.15 | 36.5 | 34.5 |
| Jayden McNeal | - | 2 | 16.5 | 8.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 9 | 0.8 | 8.8 | 46.2 | 0 | 80.0 | 1.64 | 52.6 | 46.2 |
| Malaysia Lucero | - | 6 | 18.5 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 10 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 48.6 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0.46 | 49.1 | 48.6 |
| Janelle Pena | - | 6 | 16.3 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | -72 | -3.6 | -29.5 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 57.1 | -2.28 | 47.9 | 42.9 |
| Brianna Bouton | - | 4 | 19.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 1.0 | -29 | -1.8 | -17.6 | 33.3 | 20.0 | 0 | 1.11 | 38.9 | 38.9 |
| Aliyah Young | - | 6 | 10.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | -17 | -0.8 | -7.6 | 33.3 | 27.3 | 100.0 | 0.88 | 46.6 | 41.7 |
| Ledjan Pahukoa | - | 6 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 0.5 | -25 | -1.5 | -19.5 | 25.0 | 27.3 | 50.0 | 2.55 | 35.5 | 34.4 |
| Demi Thompson Lopez | - | 4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -22 | -1.3 | -24.4 | 66.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 51.5 | 66.7 |
| Jolie Johnson | - | 3 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -32 | -3.2 | -182.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 0 |
| Sasha Capers | - | 2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -9 | -0.8 | -13.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.31 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG