Cal Poly
Model Outputs
2025-2026 latest available
No materialized model snapshot for 2016 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1306 (#8) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1297 (#12) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1134 (#47) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +22.5 (#13) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +2.0 (#330) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.999 (#62) | - |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.894 (#186) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.972 (#115) | AdjNet +30.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.937 (#169) | AdjNet +23.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.975 (#117) | AdjNet +30.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.941 (#170) | AdjNet +23.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.808 (#161) | AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 48.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.788 (#179) | AdjO 71.3 | AdjD 56.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.602 (#169) | AdjO 62.1 | AdjD 57.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.648 (#233) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.658 (#222) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1187 (#53) | RD 84 | GP 39 |
2016 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-11-13 | vs | Azusa Pacific | - | Preview |
| 2015-11-14 | vs | Point Loma | - | Preview |
| 2015-11-20 | vs | Mont. St. Billings | - | Preview |
| 2015-11-21 | vs | Simon Fraser | - | Preview |
| 2015-11-24 | @ | Biola | - | Preview |
| 2015-11-28 | @ | Hope Int'l | - | Preview |
| 2015-12-02 | vs | Cal State LA | W | 82 - 45 |
| 2015-12-05 | vs | Cal St. Dom. Hills | - | Preview |
| 2015-12-13 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 65 - 63 |
| 2015-12-15 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | L | 55 - 61 |
| 2015-12-19 | vs | Central Wash. | L | 58 - 63 |
| 2016-01-01 | @ | CSUSB | L | 60 - 68 |
| 2016-01-02 | @ | UC San Diego | - | Preview |
| 2016-01-07 | vs | Stanislaus St. | - | Preview |
| 2016-01-09 | vs | Chico St. | W | 65 - 58 |
| 2016-01-15 | @ | Cal State LA | - | Preview |
| 2016-01-16 | @ | Cal St. Dom. Hills | - | Preview |
| 2016-01-23 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | - | Preview |
| 2016-01-28 | vs | CSUSB | W | 52 - 45 |
| 2016-01-30 | vs | UC San Diego | - | Preview |
| 2016-02-05 | @ | Sonoma St. | - | Preview |
| 2016-02-06 | @ | San Fran. St. | L | 44 - 49 |
| 2016-02-11 | vs | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 61 - 60 |
| 2016-02-12 | vs | Cal St. East Bay | - | Preview |
| 2016-02-19 | @ | Chico St. | - | Preview |
| 2016-02-20 | @ | Stanislaus St. | L | 65 - 76 |
| 2016-02-27 | vs | Cal St. San Marcos | - | Preview |
| 2016-03-01 | @ | UC San Diego | - | Preview |
2016 Roster
No roster data available for this season.