Cal Poly
Model Outputs
2002-2003
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1022 (#149) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 980 (#180) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1035 (#114) | HCA +112 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -0.8 (#180) | HCA +3.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +3.3 (#119) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.464 (#185) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.448 (#177) | AdjNet -1.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.448 (#177) | AdjNet -1.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.461 (#190) | AdjO 67.2 | AdjD 68.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.539 (#120) | AdjO 68.4 | AdjD 66.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.518 (#153) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.533 (#146) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 981 (#172) | RD 126 | GP 29 |
2003 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-11-22 | @ | Colorado | L | 69 - 97 |
| 2002-11-30 | vs | San Diego State | L | 62 - 65 |
| 2002-12-02 | @ | Oregon State | L | 60 - 81 |
| 2002-12-07 | vs | Sacramento State | L | 66 - 73 |
| 2002-12-16 | vs | Loyola Marymount | W | 72 - 70 |
| 2002-12-20 | N | New Orleans | L | 75 - 89 |
| 2002-12-21 | N | Eastern Illinois | W | 73 - 70 |
| 2002-12-28 | @ | Saint Mary's | W | 59 - 52 |
| 2003-01-02 | vs | Cal State Fullerton | W | 65 - 44 |
| 2003-01-04 | vs | UC Riverside | W | 83 - 77 |
| 2003-01-09 | @ | Utah State | L | 67 - 81 |
| 2003-01-11 | @ | Idaho | L | 50 - 66 |
| 2003-01-16 | vs | Pacific | W | 75 - 72 |
| 2003-01-18 | vs | Cal State Northridge | L | 54 - 73 |
| 2003-01-25 | @ | UC Santa Barbara | L | 61 - 70 |
| 2003-01-29 | @ | Long Beach State | W | 86 - 71 |
| 2003-02-01 | @ | UC Irvine | W | 74 - 68 |
| 2003-02-06 | vs | Idaho | L | 65 - 68 |
| 2003-02-08 | vs | Utah State | L | 63 - 64 |
| 2003-02-13 | @ | Cal State Northridge | W | 62 - 59 |
| 2003-02-15 | @ | Pacific | W | 67 - 64 |
| 2003-02-20 | vs | UC Santa Barbara | W | 66 - 63 |
| 2003-02-27 | vs | UC Irvine | L | 62 - 68 |
| 2003-03-01 | vs | Long Beach State | W | 76 - 64 |
| 2003-03-06 | @ | UC Riverside | W | 86 - 67 |
| 2003-03-08 | @ | Cal State Fullerton | L | 85 - 88 |
| 2003-03-13 | N | Idaho | W | 54 - 50 |
| 2003-03-14 | N | UC Santa Barbara | W | 67 - 52 |
| 2003-03-15 | N | Utah State | L | 54 - 57 |
2003 Roster
No roster data available for this season.