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Cal Poly Mustangs

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs
Program History

2018 Team Stats (2 games)

58.5
PPG
67.0
Opp
-8.5
Margin
30.1%
FG%
15.8%
3P%
74.4%
FT%
37.5
RPG
5.0
APG
13.5
TO
-
Est. poss./game
68.0
Adj PPG
73.6
Adj Opp PPG
#231
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2017-2018
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 917 (#208) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1004 (#165) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +77 elo More → 1037 (#128) HCA +77 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -5.6 (#225) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.3 More → -4.2 (#211) HCA +2.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.368 (#216) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -7.6 More → 0.294 (#222) AdjNet -7.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -7.7 More → 0.292 (#222) AdjNet -7.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.0 | AdjD 73.6 More → 0.377 (#231) AdjO 68.0 | AdjD 73.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.4 | AdjD 70.5 More → 0.409 (#231) AdjO 66.4 | AdjD 70.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.405 (#206) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.412 (#203) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 130 | GP 28 More → 988 (#174) RD 130 | GP 28

2018 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2017-11-10 @ San Francisco Dons L 71 - 83
2017-11-16 vs Grand Canyon Lopes W 75 - 69
2017-11-19 @ Saint Mary's Gaels L 64 - 82
2017-11-24 vs Robert Morris Colonials L 50 - 66
2017-11-26 vs San Francisco Dons W 88 - 83
2017-11-28 vs Cal State Monterey Bay Otters W 77 - 44
2017-12-09 @ Northern Arizona Lumberjacks W 89 - 73
2017-12-11 @ Eastern Washington Eagles L 72 - 75
2017-12-13 @ Minnesota Golden Gophers L 68 - 112
2017-12-16 @ North Dakota State Bison W 73 - 69
2017-12-19 @ Utah Valley Wolverines L 70 - 89
2017-12-29 vs Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners W 59 - 57
2018-01-04 @ UC Riverside Highlanders W 87 - 82
2018-01-06 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 68 - 73
2018-01-13 vs Cal State Northridge Matadors W 84 - 71
2018-01-18 vs UC Irvine Anteaters W 79 - 76
2018-01-20 vs UC Davis Aggies L 76 - 80
2018-01-25 @ Long Beach State Beach W 75 - 64
2018-01-27 @ Cal State Fullerton Titans W 72 - 63
2018-02-01 vs Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine W 52 - 50
2018-02-03 vs UC Riverside Highlanders W 91 - 73
2018-02-07 @ UC Davis Aggies L 77 - 85
2018-02-10 vs Long Beach State Beach W 70 - 61
2018-02-15 @ UC Irvine Anteaters L 66 - 107
2018-02-17 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors L 66 - 86
2018-02-21 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos W 73 - 72
2018-02-24 vs Cal State Fullerton Titans W 63 - 56
2018-03-03 @ Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine W 67 - 61
2018-03-09 vs Cal State Northridge Matadors L 50 - 73

2018 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
D. Leaupepe D. Leaupepe G 2 25.5 21.0 5.5 0.5 3.5 0.0 4.0 18.0 8.5 75 22 3.4 5.2 41.7 22.2 83.3 4.22 50.9 44.4
L. Leaupepe L. Leaupepe G 2 30.0 11.0 9.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 3.5 14.5 4.0 49 19 2.6 5.2 27.6 0.0 75.0 2.7 33.8 27.6
D. Stanback D. Stanback F 2 21.0 8.5 4.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 7.5 7.5 7 22 0.3 0.7 33.3 0 77.8 -1.98 44.8 33.3
E. Anderson E. Anderson F 2 25.0 5.5 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 2.5 58 22 2.6 6.6 33.3 22.2 100.0 1.65 44.2 41.7
G. Grupalo G. Grupalo G 2 13.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 1.0 5.5 0.0 -33 20 -1.6 -4.7 27.3 0.0 100.0 -4.0 33.7 27.3
D. Stahley D. Stahley G 2 24.5 3.5 2.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 1.5 2.0 7.0 20 20 1.0 1.6 50.0 0.0 60.0 -1.82 56.5 50.0
A. Basallo A. Basallo G 2 12.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 5.0 -2.0 4 22 0.2 0.4 20.0 40.0 0 -2.36 30.0 30.0
N. Fausey N. Fausey C 2 13.5 1.0 3.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 2.5 2.5 -8 22 -0.4 -1.2 20.0 0 0 -2.5 20.0 20.0
K. Brown K. Brown F 2 4.0 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 -0.5 -5 18 -0.3 -1.7 16.7 0 0.0 -2.55 14.5 16.7
M. Evans M. Evans F 2 12.5 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 -1.0 -14 22 -0.6 -1.6 0.0 0.0 0 -1.38 0.0 0.0
K. Nunnelley K. Nunnelley F 2 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 8 0.6 6.0 0 0 0 -1.01 0 0
J. Smith J. Smith G 2 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -12 16 -0.8 -9.6 0 0 0 -2.97 0 0
K. Wong K. Wong G 2 14.0 0.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.5 24 22 1.1 2.5 0.0 0 0 -0.35 0.0 0.0
M. Holt M. Holt G 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 11 0.6 8.0 0 0 0 -0.03 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG