Cal Poly Mustangs
Model Outputs
2014-2015
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 895 (#221) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1004 (#173) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 996 (#181) | HCA +86 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -1.0 (#173) | HCA +2.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.6 (#168) | HCA +2.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.513 (#167) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.472 (#165) | AdjNet -1.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.469 (#165) | AdjNet -1.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.474 (#177) | AdjO 65.7 | AdjD 66.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.483 (#181) | AdjO 64.5 | AdjD 65.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.465 (#185) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.467 (#184) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 977 (#187) | RD 142 | GP 29 |
2015 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-11-16 | @ | Fresno State Bulldogs | L | 56 - 67 |
| 2014-11-21 | @ | Loyola Marymount Lions | W | 87 - 79 |
| 2014-11-23 | vs | Portland Pilots | W | 76 - 67 |
| 2014-11-25 | vs | Pepperdine Waves | L | 69 - 76 |
| 2014-11-28 | vs | Dartmouth Big Green | L | 61 - 74 |
| 2014-11-29 | vs | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | W | 63 - 48 |
| 2014-12-02 | @ | Santa Clara Broncos | W | 79 - 73 |
| 2014-12-14 | vs | Saint Mary's Gaels | L | 64 - 65 |
| 2014-12-16 | @ | New Mexico State Aggies | L | 65 - 79 |
| 2014-12-18 | @ | New Mexico Lobos | L | 68 - 84 |
| 2014-12-21 | @ | Colorado State Rams | L | 63 - 65 |
| 2015-01-03 | vs | Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners | W | 71 - 66 |
| 2015-01-08 | vs | Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine | W | 70 - 65 |
| 2015-01-10 | @ | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | W | 56 - 41 |
| 2015-01-15 | vs | Long Beach State Beach | L | 74 - 85 |
| 2015-01-17 | vs | Cal State Northridge Matadors | W | 63 - 54 |
| 2015-01-22 | @ | Cal State Fullerton Titans | W | 57 - 48 |
| 2015-01-24 | @ | UC Riverside Highlanders | L | 78 - 82 |
| 2015-01-29 | vs | UC Davis Aggies | W | 72 - 64 |
| 2015-01-31 | vs | UC Irvine Anteaters | W | 74 - 58 |
| 2015-02-07 | @ | Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine | L | 64 - 79 |
| 2015-02-12 | @ | Cal State Northridge Matadors | L | 58 - 70 |
| 2015-02-14 | @ | Long Beach State Beach | W | 58 - 57 |
| 2015-02-19 | vs | Cal State Fullerton Titans | L | 60 - 74 |
| 2015-02-21 | vs | UC Riverside Highlanders | W | 70 - 68 |
| 2015-02-26 | @ | UC Davis Aggies | W | 68 - 52 |
| 2015-02-28 | @ | UC Irvine Anteaters | L | 75 - 84 |
| 2015-03-07 | vs | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | W | 84 - 63 |
| 2015-03-11 | vs | Cal State Fullerton Titans | L | 48 - 55 |
2015 Roster
No roster data available for this season.