🐻⬇️🏀

Cal Lutheran

Season:
Also known as: Cal Lutheran
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1095 (#82) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1191 (#59) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1166 (#44) HCA +62 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1011 (#359) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +16.5 (#48) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +13.3 (#177) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +5.0 (#280) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.725 (#352) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +23.6 More → 0.972 (#114) NetEff +23.6
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +20.9 More → 0.952 (#127) NetEff +20.9
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -25.3 More → 0.037 (#531) NetEff -25.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +17.1 More → 0.878 (#228) AdjNet +17.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +16.8 More → 0.879 (#230) AdjNet +16.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 72.3 | AdjD 62.1 More → 0.717 (#224) AdjO 72.3 | AdjD 62.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 54.7 More → 0.733 (#97) AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 54.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 57.2 More → 0.586 (#251) AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 57.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.841 (#111) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.565 (#323) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.837 (#114) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.539 (#346) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 23 More → 1282 (#31) RD 98 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

No games found for this season.

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.