CSUSB
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1001 (#183) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 996 (#252) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 934 (#501) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +6.4 (#149) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.9 (#345) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.710 (#209) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.857 (#193) | AdjNet +15.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.849 (#201) | AdjNet +14.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.738 (#196) | AdjO 80.4 | AdjD 69.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.509 (#281) | AdjO 75.1 | AdjD 74.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.450 (#354) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.454 (#348) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 951 (#276) | RD 95 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | @ | Western Wash. | W | 91 - 78 |
| 2025-11-02 | vs | Simon Fraser | W | 83 - 73 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Vanguard | L | 74 - 85 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Point Loma | L | 66 - 87 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | CUI | L | 66 - 75 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Azusa Pacific | W | 62 - 56 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Cal St. Dom. Hills | L | 68 - 76 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Cal State LA | L | 45 - 63 |
| 2025-12-19 | @ | Stanislaus St. | W | 81 - 73 |
| 2025-12-21 | @ | UC Merced | W | 61 - 60 |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | L | 64 - 78 |
| 2026-01-04 | @ | San Fran. St. | W | 73 - 60 |
| 2026-01-08 | vs | Cal St. San Marcos | L | 91 - 92 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 85 - 84 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | W | 70 - 55 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 60 - 68 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Chico St. | W | 76 - 62 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 78 - 80 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | San Fran. St. | W | 99 - 90 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Cal St. East Bay | L | 79 - 82 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | L | 82 - 89 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | L | 74 - 86 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Fowler | - | 22 | 36.7 | 15.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 15 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 41.9 | 30.9 | 86.2 | 0.33 | 53.9 | 47.2 |
| Gavin Davis | - | 22 | 25.6 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 9.3 | 9.1 | -55 | -2.5 | -14.7 | 48.5 | 27.5 | 81.9 | 2.49 | 58.6 | 53.2 |
| Javon Ervin | - | 6 | 22.8 | 11.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 21 | 3.5 | 50.9 | 45.8 | 35.7 | 81.8 | -0.9 | 58.1 | 51.0 |
| Zion Paleo | - | 22 | 22.5 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 18 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 41.1 | 36.5 | 82.1 | -1.01 | 56.8 | 47.2 |
| Xavier Clinton | - | 20 | 27.3 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 35 | 1.7 | 9.0 | 44.2 | 38.4 | 61.4 | 2.12 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
| Malachi Murrell | - | 19 | 17.8 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 7.1 | -36 | -1.9 | -12.8 | 51.7 | 0.0 | 46.9 | -1.22 | 51.9 | 51.7 |
| Walter Hamilton | - | 11 | 13.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 5.2 | -30 | -2.7 | -37.9 | 58.3 | 20.0 | 94.1 | -0.49 | 67.8 | 59.7 |
| Amound Anderson II | - | 19 | 21.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 3.5 | -7 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 32.3 | 29.5 | 69.2 | -0.61 | 43.0 | 38.9 |
| Kaylon Mason | - | 15 | 14.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 25 | 1.8 | 11.9 | 41.9 | 30.6 | 66.7 | 0.15 | 52.3 | 50.8 |
| Pablo Soumare | - | 20 | 18.0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 5.7 | -16 | -0.8 | -5.5 | 44.9 | 0.0 | 52.4 | -1.52 | 48.0 | 44.9 |
| Elijah Edwards | - | 16 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -3 | -0.2 | -1.4 | 45.5 | 47.6 | 42.9 | -1.54 | 59.6 | 60.6 |
| Max Zylicz | - | 15 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | -5 | -0.3 | -3.8 | 28.1 | 26.9 | 100.0 | 1.04 | 43.0 | 39.1 |
| Court Franklin | - | 21 | 10.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 37 | 1.8 | 51.4 | 42.5 | 0 | 21.4 | 0.27 | 40.1 | 42.5 |
| Fallou Cisse | - | 1 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -2 | -2.0 | -21.6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.13 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG