Black Hills St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1434 (#2) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1301 (#17) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1165 (#28) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +17.8 (#30) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +14.2 (#109) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.776 (#30) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.858 (#74) | AdjNet +15.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.861 (#74) | AdjNet +15.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.753 (#68) | AdjO 82.6 | AdjD 70.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.750 (#40) | AdjO 80.0 | AdjD 67.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.800 (#69) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.794 (#63) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1207 (#43) | RD 104 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Sul Ross St. | W | 86 - 54 |
| 2025-11-17 | vs | Tex. A&M Int'l | W | 89 - 57 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | MSU Moorhead | L | 85 - 100 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Augustana (SD) | W | 75 - 71 |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | Minot St. | W | 72 - 65 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Mary | W | 85 - 74 |
| 2025-12-02 | @ | South Dakota Mines | W | 104 - 76 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Chadron St. | W | 90 - 67 |
| 2025-12-11 | vs | UCCS | W | 97 - 92 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Colo. Christian | W | 96 - 76 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Dickinson St. | W | 81 - 57 |
| 2026-01-01 | @ | Northern St. | W | 77 - 70 |
| 2026-01-08 | @ | Regis (CO) | W | 87 - 60 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | MSU Denver | L | 73 - 77 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | N.M. Highlands | W | 79 - 74 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Fort Lewis | L | 76 - 78 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Colorado Mesa | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Western Colo. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-27 | @ | Chadron St. | W | 77 - 59 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | South Dakota Mines | W | 90 - 64 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | CSU Pueblo | L | 53 - 71 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | UCCS | W | 112 - 81 |
| 2026-02-12 | vs | Colo. Sch. of Mines | W | 87 - 69 |
| 2026-02-14 | vs | Regis (CO) | W | 84 - 51 |
| 2026-02-19 | @ | Adams St. | W | 79 - 69 |
| 2026-02-21 | @ | N.M. Highlands | W | 85 - 77 |
| 2026-02-26 | vs | Westminster (UT) | W | 80 - 58 |
| 2026-02-28 | vs | Colorado Mesa | W | 74 - 65 |
| 2026-03-03 | vs | UCCS | W | 74 - 73 |
| 2026-03-06 | vs | Fort Lewis | W | 77 - 75 |
| 2026-03-07 | vs | Colorado Mesa | W | 89 - 77 |
| 2026-03-14 | @ | Lubbock Christian | W | 67 - 64 |
| 2026-03-15 | vs | St. Mary's (TX) | W | 78 - 60 |
| 2026-03-17 | @ | DBU | W | 76 - 62 |
| 2026-03-25 | vs | Nova Southeastern | L | 66 - 76 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Lowe | - | 33 | 32.4 | 17.3 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 120 | 26 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 47.8 | 39.9 | 91.2 | -0.93 | 62.5 | 58.5 |
| Jaeton Hackley | - | 33 | 32.5 | 12.5 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 152 | 26 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 49.5 | 37.1 | 84.1 | 2.25 | 59.4 | 54.9 |
| Myles Johnson | - | 33 | 21.6 | 11.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 147 | 25 | 5.9 | 11.6 | 55.7 | 24.4 | 70.7 | 1.59 | 60.9 | 57.6 |
| Willie Patterson III | - | 8 | 17.9 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 9.5 | - | - | - | - | 54.9 | 37.5 | 73.9 | -2.17 | 62.2 | 57.8 |
| Tristan Hurdle | - | 32 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 132 | 26 | 5.1 | 12.6 | 47.2 | 45.2 | 78.8 | 2.18 | 65.3 | 63.7 |
| Jack Haggett | - | 32 | 24.3 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 76 | 26 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 51.5 | 23.6 | 72.4 | -0.2 | 59.2 | 54.8 |
| Jackson Seale | - | 33 | 21.6 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 78 | 26 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 44.5 | 33.9 | 64.7 | 0.62 | 55.2 | 54.5 |
| BJ Woodruff | - | 29 | 21.2 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 40 | 25 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 41.9 | 42.9 | 77.8 | -1.04 | 57.1 | 54.9 |
| Joel Speckman | - | 31 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 88 | 26 | 3.4 | 10.9 | 61.2 | 0.0 | 64.2 | 1.42 | 63.7 | 61.2 |
| Blake Volmer | - | 33 | 13.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 36 | 26 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 48.5 | 47.5 | 78.6 | -2.4 | 65.1 | 62.9 |
| Johnnie Reed | - | 23 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -5 | 10 | -0.5 | -11.9 | 27.3 | 14.3 | 0 | -2.34 | 31.8 | 31.8 |
| Matias Aldana | - | 18 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -6 | 7 | -0.9 | -28.7 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 0 | -2.22 | 41.7 | 41.7 |
| Benson Kieffer | - | 11 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.3 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.16 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG