Black Hills St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1219 (#25) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1188 (#47) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1165 (#28) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +16.1 (#63) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +14.2 (#109) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.776 (#171) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.858 (#191) | AdjNet +15.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.861 (#191) | AdjNet +15.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.753 (#177) | AdjO 82.6 | AdjD 70.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.750 (#40) | AdjO 80.0 | AdjD 67.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.800 (#69) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.794 (#63) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1207 (#43) | RD 104 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Sul Ross St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-17 | vs | Tex. A&M Int'l | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | MSU Moorhead | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Augustana (SD) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | Minot St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Mary | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-02 | @ | South Dakota Mines | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Chadron St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-11 | vs | UCCS | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Colo. Christian | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Dickinson St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-01 | @ | Northern St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-08 | @ | Regis (CO) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | MSU Denver | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | N.M. Highlands | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Fort Lewis | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Colorado Mesa | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Western Colo. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-27 | @ | Chadron St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | South Dakota Mines | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | CSU Pueblo | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | UCCS | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Lowe | - | 22 | 31.7 | 18.2 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 225 | 10.2 | 41.1 | 49.6 | 43.5 | 90.3 | -0.07 | 64.7 | 61.0 |
| Myles Johnson | - | 22 | 23.3 | 12.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 184 | 8.4 | 48.9 | 58.0 | 26.7 | 69.2 | 2.67 | 62.5 | 60.1 |
| Jaeton Hackley | - | 22 | 31.7 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 196 | 8.9 | 38.3 | 53.3 | 39.3 | 74.5 | 1.49 | 61.7 | 59.3 |
| Tristan Hurdle | - | 21 | 16.6 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 146 | 7.0 | 47.5 | 46.9 | 45.1 | 80.8 | 2.7 | 64.9 | 62.8 |
| Willie Patterson III | - | 8 | 18.0 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 33 | 4.1 | 58.5 | 54.9 | 37.5 | 73.9 | 0.25 | 62.2 | 57.8 |
| Jack Haggett | - | 21 | 25.1 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 91 | 4.3 | 19.5 | 49.3 | 23.1 | 75.8 | -0.95 | 58.2 | 52.6 |
| Jackson Seale | - | 22 | 21.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 108 | 13.5 | 26.8 | 42.6 | 32.1 | 77.8 | 3.19 | 53.1 | 52.1 |
| BJ Woodruff | - | 18 | 18.7 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 61 | 3.4 | 14.4 | 45.7 | 44.4 | 83.3 | -1.34 | 62.4 | 60.6 |
| Blake Volmer | - | 22 | 16.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 50 | 2.3 | 17.9 | 50.9 | 50.0 | 75.0 | -2.35 | 67.8 | 66.0 |
| Joel Speckman | - | 20 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 42 | 2.0 | 21.9 | 63.6 | 0.0 | 52.0 | 0.46 | 62.7 | 63.6 |
| Matias Aldana | - | 10 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -11 | -1.1 | -84.1 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Johnnie Reed | - | 15 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 0.3 | 12.4 | 27.3 | 14.3 | 0 | -1.19 | 31.8 | 31.8 |
| Benson Kieffer | - | 5 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -0.6 | -15 | -3.0 | -288.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG