🐻⬇️🏀

Bismarck St.

Season: 2026
Also known as: Bismarck St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 942 (#420) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 858 (#475) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 964 (#535) HCA +75 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -17.3 (#577) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.008 (#637) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -40.4 More → 0.008 (#456) NetEff -40.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -23.7 More → 0.060 (#621) AdjNet -23.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -22.8 More → 0.061 (#618) AdjNet -22.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.6 | AdjD 82.6 More → 0.151 (#649) AdjO 63.6 | AdjD 82.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.8 | AdjD 71.5 More → 0.293 (#615) AdjO 61.8 | AdjD 71.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.229 (#582) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.237 (#581) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 276 | GP 3 More → 838 (#439) RD 276 | GP 3

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-18 @ Jamestown L 69 - 91
2025-11-19 @ Minot St. L 55 - 88
2025-12-31 @ Mary L 59 - 100

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kennedy Stormer - 3 33.0 16.7 5.3 1.0 3.7 0.0 2.3 16.0 8.3 - - - 35.4 21.7 64.7 - 45.1 40.6
Ashley Martodam - 3 18.7 12.3 3.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.7 9.0 7.3 - - - 48.1 33.3 60.0 - 55.1 51.9
Natalie DeCoteau - 3 18.7 7.3 4.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 5.7 5.3 - - - 52.9 40.0 0 - 64.7 64.7
Alionna Lawrence - 3 13.2 7.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 7.3 0.3 - - - 36.4 30.8 100.0 - 48.1 45.5
Harper Harris - 3 18.4 4.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 5.0 0.0 -3 -0.1 -0.7 26.7 30.8 100.0 0.53 44.1 40.0
Jayden Wiest - 2 24.1 4.5 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 -2.5 - - - 10.0 13.3 75.0 - 20.7 15.0
Aleah McPherson - 3 23.6 3.0 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.0 2.0 - - - 20.0 23.1 0 - 30.0 30.0
Piper Harris - 3 23.7 2.7 2.7 4.0 0.3 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.3 - - - 18.2 0.0 44.4 - 26.7 18.2
Kali Dauenhauer - 3 15.8 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.7 -1.7 - - - 11.8 6.7 50.0 - 16.8 14.7
Mariah Buffalo-Halfred - 1 2.1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 - - - 0 0 100.0 - 113.6 0
Kennedy Harter - 3 7.9 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 2.7 0.0 - - - 12.5 0.0 50.0 - 20.5 12.5
Adeia Erickson - 2 3.8 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Thomiah Poor Bear - 2 4.6 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Brynnlee Murdock - 2 7.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG