Bethany Lutheran
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 973 (#296) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 947 (#402) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1164 (#48) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +2.4 (#172) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +1.7 (#340) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.400 (#492) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.373 (#392) | NetEff -3.8 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.348 (#432) | AdjNet -5.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.338 (#435) | AdjNet -5.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.392 (#446) | AdjO 63.5 | AdjD 68.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.628 (#199) | AdjO 57.0 | AdjD 51.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.639 (#266) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.654 (#258) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1268 (#34) | RD 155 | GP 5 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Martin Luther | W | 60 - 58 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | North Central (MN) | W | 69 - 55 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Minn.-Morris | W | 71 - 63 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Crown (MN) | W | 60 - 38 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Martin Luther | W | 43 - 37 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Hulke | - | 5 | 29.4 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 84 | 4.2 | 28.3 | 39.6 | 34.4 | 80.0 | -0.6 | 51.6 | 50.0 |
| Megan Wegner | - | 5 | 32.9 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 75 | 3.6 | 20.2 | 43.2 | 26.9 | 100.0 | 0.24 | 55.8 | 51.1 |
| Juliana Ewald | - | 5 | 24.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 55 | 2.8 | 17.6 | 28.9 | 26.9 | 52.4 | -3.89 | 40.6 | 36.7 |
| Kenadi Arndt | - | 5 | 28.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 33 | 1.5 | 8.3 | 32.8 | 28.6 | 40.0 | -0.69 | 34.8 | 34.4 |
| Kaylee Hunter | - | 5 | 31.0 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 82 | 6.8 | 20.9 | 31.6 | 30.4 | 70.0 | 4.66 | 44.8 | 40.8 |
| Arinn McGee | - | 3 | 17.6 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 10.3 | -11 | -0.6 | -3.8 | 53.8 | 0 | 75.0 | 1.24 | 57.6 | 53.8 |
| Lauren Bauer | - | 4 | 19.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 31 | 1.6 | 23.1 | 35.3 | 37.5 | 0 | 2.34 | 44.1 | 44.1 |
| Madison Reedy | - | 1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 6 | 1.0 | 62.6 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| Sheridan Kennedy | - | 5 | 11.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 88 | 4.2 | 61.5 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 2.55 | 44.1 | 40.0 |
| Amelia Walker | - | 5 | 10.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 3.6 | -11 | -0.6 | -7.2 | 36.4 | 16.7 | 50.0 | 1.15 | 43.1 | 40.9 |
| Ma'yell Craig | - | 1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1 | -0.3 | -16.7 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.23 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Brooke Burnette | - | 1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 0.5 | 38.9 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.25 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Brea Mertz | - | 3 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 6 | 0.4 | 14.9 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | -0.27 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Sydney Hoffman | - | 1 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | -39 | -3.9 | -164.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Teagan Epema | - | 1 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | -16.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.23 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG