🐻⬇️🏀

Barton

Also known as: Barton
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 984 (#214) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 896 (#447) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 967 (#443) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -2.3 (#247) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → -0.1 (#331) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.520 (#324) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +26.8 More → 0.952 (#165) NetEff +26.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +1.7 More → 0.550 (#395) AdjNet +1.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +1.9 More → 0.556 (#393) AdjNet +1.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 82.6 | AdjD 81.3 More → 0.529 (#393) AdjO 82.6 | AdjD 81.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 76.9 | AdjD 75.6 More → 0.529 (#253) AdjO 76.9 | AdjD 75.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.476 (#334) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.486 (#327) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 95 | GP 23 More → 906 (#346) RD 95 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Wingate L 92 - 94
2025-11-15 vs Augusta L 81 - 83
2025-11-19 vs Shaw L 82 - 83
2025-11-21 vs Emory & Henry L 84 - 85
2025-11-22 vs Middle Georgia L 77 - 95
2025-11-25 @ UNC Pembroke L 71 - 92
2025-11-29 @ Winston-Salem W 77 - 64
2025-12-03 @ Chowan L 82 - 89
2025-12-06 vs Elizabeth City St. W 68 - 66
2025-12-13 vs Shorter W 93 - 87
2025-12-17 vs Mount Olive W 98 - 76
2025-12-20 @ Virginia St. L 66 - 94
2026-01-03 @ Young Harris L 92 - 101
2026-01-07 @ Ferrum L 78 - 79
2026-01-10 vs Lees-McRae W 88 - 67
2026-01-13 vs Francis Marion L 59 - 61
2026-01-17 @ Converse W 89 - 86
2026-01-19 vs North Greenville W 89 - 54
2026-01-23 @ Erskine W 92 - 56
2026-01-28 vs UNC Pembroke L 70 - 85
2026-01-30 vs Ferrum L 76 - 81
2026-02-04 @ Southern Wesleyan L 76 - 79
2026-02-07 vs King (TN) W 89 - 74

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jordyn Surratt - 1 37.7 28.0 11.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 11.0 30.0 106 6.6 51.1 54.5 50.0 93.8 2.37 77.6 59.1
Will Fowler - 1 36.8 26.0 3.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 19.0 15.0 -6 -0.4 -3.0 47.4 40.0 100.0 1.18 62.6 57.9
Tre Locklear - 1 38.2 16.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 9.0 6 0.3 2.3 62.5 57.1 100.0 0.81 90.1 87.5
Jaylen Faber - 22 28.6 14.3 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.3 1.5 11.5 7.5 15 0.7 3.6 38.9 37.7 79.1 -0.73 56.0 52.0
Trey Fields - 22 27.1 14.2 8.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 1.8 9.4 13.8 -26 -1.1 -7.2 48.5 42.6 82.1 -2.27 61.9 54.9
Trevur Smalls - 22 30.1 13.4 4.5 2.3 0.8 0.5 2.3 8.1 11.0 72 3.1 18.2 51.7 35.3 78.0 0.79 63.9 56.7
Sean Quick-Streeter - 22 22.9 11.4 4.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 1.2 10.2 7.3 63 2.7 21.7 40.2 20.8 67.5 3.35 48.2 43.5
Latavian Lawrence - 1 16.6 9.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 8.0 -11 -0.7 -8.6 50.0 25.0 100.0 -1.9 65.4 58.3
Caleb Reams - 22 30.4 7.4 2.2 3.7 0.7 0.1 2.1 7.0 5.0 28 1.3 5.4 35.9 35.5 79.5 1.03 47.9 43.1
Chris Nobles - 18 18.1 6.5 3.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.9 4.5 5.4 20 1.1 11.5 60.5 0.0 52.8 0.32 60.4 60.5
Christian Taylor - 22 13.4 5.7 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.8 4.0 3.5 51 2.5 15.9 50.6 37.1 75.8 2.09 62.1 58.0
Isaiah Davis - 22 16.2 5.5 3.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 1.0 4.5 5.0 -43 -2.0 -17.0 46.0 32.1 71.4 -0.32 53.9 50.5
Ethan Brownell - 1 11.5 4.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 -4 -0.2 -5.2 66.7 0 0 -0.29 66.7 66.7
Camden Edmonds - 1 35.5 3.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 1.0 14 0.8 6.7 10.0 11.1 0 0.76 15.0 15.0
Nick Evans - 20 10.5 2.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 1.2 4.1 0 0.0 0.0 75.0 0 55.6 -1.47 73.3 75.0
Daniel Greene - 4 3.6 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 - - - 66.7 100.0 0 - 83.3 83.3
J.J. Dancy - 18 6.4 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.4 38 2.2 53.4 25.0 26.3 100.0 -0.86 38.2 35.4
Owen Pedersen - 4 2.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 -0.5 - - - 20.0 0.0 0 - 20.0 20.0
Jackson Lavengood - 4 2.9 0.2 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.2 - - - 0 0 16.7 - 18.9 0
Ioannis Donakis - 1 2.4 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -5 -0.3 -4.7 0 0 0 0.52 0 0
Chrisean Oree - 1 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 -3.0 5 0.4 6.5 0.0 0.0 0 1.76 0.0 0.0
Jonathon Pickering - 1 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -49 -3.3 -110.7 0 0 0 -0.13 0 0
Finley Pruever - 1 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 41 3.4 41.5 0.0 0.0 0 0.19 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG