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Ball St.

Season: 2026 2025 2023 2020
Also known as: Ball St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1015 (#344) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1016 (#368) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 980 (#554) HCA +56 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +33.6 (#43) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.989 (#177) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +33.8 More → 0.981 (#78) AdjNet +33.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +32.8 More → 0.981 (#88) AdjNet +32.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 85.9 | AdjD 63.2 More → 0.887 (#110) AdjO 85.9 | AdjD 63.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 82.4 | AdjD 66.3 More → 0.812 (#21) AdjO 82.4 | AdjD 66.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.919 (#22) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.906 (#15) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 284 | GP 1 More → 1028 (#322) RD 284 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-12-29 vs Earlham - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.