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Ball St.

Season: 2026 2025 2023 2020
Also known as: Ball St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1014 (#352) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1020 (#353) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 980 (#554) HCA +56 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +33.6 (#43) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.989 (#177) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +33.8 More → 0.981 (#78) AdjNet +33.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +32.8 More → 0.981 (#88) AdjNet +32.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 85.9 | AdjD 63.2 More → 0.887 (#110) AdjO 85.9 | AdjD 63.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 82.4 | AdjD 66.3 More → 0.812 (#21) AdjO 82.4 | AdjD 66.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.919 (#22) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.906 (#16) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 284 | GP 1 More → 1028 (#319) RD 284 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-12-29 vs Earlham W 93 - 30

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Preston Copeland - 1 22.1 18.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 12.0 - - - 80.0 0 33.3 - 71.2 80.0
Devon Barnes - 1 27.6 17.0 6.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 9.0 21.0 - - - 66.7 66.7 100.0 - 82.4 77.8
Kody Clancy - 1 27.2 11.0 1.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 11.0 - - - 66.7 50.0 33.3 - 75.1 83.3
Elmore James - 1 27.3 10.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 5.0 - - - 37.5 33.3 100.0 - 56.3 50.0
Armoni Zeigler - 1 26.4 10.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 12.0 - - - 50.0 0.0 0.0 - 47.9 50.0
Mason Jones - 1 18.0 8.0 11.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 18.0 13 0.9 27.3 100.0 100.0 0 0.72 133.3 133.3
Easton Foster - 1 12.1 6.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 6.0 - - - 50.0 50.0 33.3 - 56.4 62.5
Davion Hill - 1 12.5 5.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 27 1.5 20.6 66.7 0 100.0 -0.36 72.7 66.7
Jai Anthoni Bearden - 1 18.1 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 - - - 66.7 0 0 - 66.7 66.7
Cam Denson - 1 8.8 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 - - - 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG