Averett
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1053 (#173) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1086 (#181) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1009 (#376) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.2 (#196) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -2.4 (#380) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.208 (#662) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.280 (#466) | AdjNet -8.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.273 (#469) | AdjNet -8.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.379 (#451) | AdjO 66.6 | AdjD 72.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.478 (#460) | AdjO 68.2 | AdjD 69.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.458 (#438) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.463 (#437) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1083 (#225) | RD 105 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | St. Mary's (MD) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-08 | @ | High Point | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-12 | @ | Southern Va. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Greensboro | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Apprentice | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | William Peace | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Wash. & Lee | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Shenandoah | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-10 | vs | Warren Wilson | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | JWU Charlotte | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-28 | @ | Longwood | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Pfeiffer | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Randolph-Macon | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Va. Wesleyan | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Randolph | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | East. Mennonite | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Guilford | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Hampden-Sydney | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Wash. & Lee | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | Roanoke | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Lynchburg | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Bridgewater (VA) | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Sellars | - | 19 | 30.5 | 15.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 9.4 | 14.5 | -33 | -1.6 | -5.8 | 52.8 | 23.1 | 73.8 | 2.63 | 61.5 | 54.5 |
| Mason Mitchell | - | 20 | 31.3 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 10.2 | 9.3 | -109 | -5.0 | -17.1 | 41.9 | 43.5 | 86.5 | -1.4 | 56.8 | 53.4 |
| Timayahs Bracey | - | 20 | 27.4 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 9.8 | 4.5 | -57 | -2.7 | -11.3 | 37.4 | 37.4 | 73.2 | -4.18 | 51.0 | 46.9 |
| Tyler Stephens | - | 20 | 23.5 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 9 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 52.0 | 30.8 | 65.1 | 2.54 | 57.6 | 55.1 |
| Josh Seiler | - | 19 | 14.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 5.3 | 3.5 | -69 | -3.6 | -32.0 | 41.0 | 31.0 | 72.7 | -2.18 | 51.5 | 50.0 |
| Zach Skogen | - | 20 | 21.7 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 6.2 | -12 | -0.5 | -2.9 | 50.0 | 34.2 | 39.1 | 0.47 | 56.7 | 58.3 |
| Jalen Chambers | - | 16 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | -4 | -0.2 | -4.1 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 75.0 | -0.6 | 59.5 | 54.5 |
| Blair Crumbie | - | 14 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | -20 | -1.4 | -11.7 | 39.3 | 37.5 | 71.4 | -2.54 | 48.4 | 46.7 |
| Terrell Fitzgerald | - | 17 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | -45 | -2.5 | -52.3 | 57.9 | 42.9 | 50.0 | -2.41 | 61.6 | 61.8 |
| Isaiah Ramazani | - | 19 | 13.5 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | -14 | -0.7 | -7.0 | 41.0 | 44.4 | 58.3 | 2.27 | 50.4 | 46.2 |
| Malik Ware | - | 9 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 2.9 | -24 | -3.0 | -54.8 | 40.0 | 42.9 | 87.5 | -4.12 | 59.4 | 50.0 |
| D'Markus Tucker | - | 9 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -6 | -0.8 | -14.4 | 40.0 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.73 | 41.4 | 40.0 |
| Thailand Evans | - | 10 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -22 | -2.4 | -31.5 | 44.4 | 0 | 50.0 | -1.45 | 45.5 | 44.4 |
| Josh Lewis | - | 11 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | -43 | -4.3 | -114.7 | 28.6 | 33.3 | 0 | -5.64 | 35.7 | 35.7 |
| Kofi Williams | - | 12 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 16 | 1.6 | 26.3 | 45.5 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.97 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Sully Gay | - | 6 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -5 | -1.2 | -179.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Carter Cornett | - | 6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -12 | -3.0 | -417.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG