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Averett

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Averett
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1136 (#64) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1112 (#122) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1009 (#376) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +1.3 (#109) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -2.4 (#380) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.208 (#662) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -8.2 More → 0.280 (#466) AdjNet -8.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -8.4 More → 0.273 (#469) AdjNet -8.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.6 | AdjD 72.0 More → 0.379 (#451) AdjO 66.6 | AdjD 72.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.2 | AdjD 69.2 More → 0.478 (#460) AdjO 68.2 | AdjD 69.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.458 (#437) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.463 (#437) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 103 | GP 21 More → 1081 (#224) RD 103 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs St. Mary's (MD) L 68 - 74
2025-11-08 @ High Point L 52 - 127
2025-11-12 @ Southern Va. W 76 - 58
2025-11-14 vs Greensboro W 82 - 73
2025-11-22 vs Apprentice W 62 - 61
2025-11-25 vs William Peace W 83 - 60
2025-12-03 @ Wash. & Lee L 55 - 75
2025-12-06 @ Shenandoah W 74 - 59
2025-12-10 vs Warren Wilson W 96 - 69
2025-12-16 vs JWU Charlotte W 102 - 59
2025-12-28 @ Longwood L 49 - 92
2025-12-30 @ Pfeiffer W 86 - 74
2026-01-07 vs Randolph-Macon W 62 - 60
2026-01-10 vs Va. Wesleyan W 47 - 43
2026-01-14 vs Randolph W 74 - 55
2026-01-17 @ East. Mennonite L 58 - 61
2026-01-21 @ Guilford L 57 - 76
2026-01-23 vs Hampden-Sydney W 84 - 82
2026-01-28 vs Wash. & Lee W 79 - 63
2026-01-30 @ Roanoke L 46 - 68
2026-02-04 @ Lynchburg L 73 - 84
2026-02-07 vs Bridgewater (VA) L 67 - 80

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jackson Sellars - 21 29.7 14.0 5.7 2.5 1.2 0.7 2.2 9.1 12.8 -33 -1.6 -5.8 49.7 21.4 73.5 2.55 58.8 51.3
Mason Mitchell - 22 31.0 11.8 5.3 1.3 0.9 0.4 1.3 9.8 8.5 -109 -5.0 -17.1 40.9 42.2 82.9 1.86 55.6 52.3
Timayahs Bracey - 22 27.1 11.2 1.4 3.0 0.9 0.0 2.6 10.0 3.9 -57 -2.7 -11.3 35.9 34.2 75.8 -4.8 49.4 44.5
Tyler Stephens - 22 22.9 7.8 5.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.6 6.0 7.4 9 0.5 2.1 50.4 29.6 65.9 4.72 56.1 53.4
Josh Seiler - 21 14.7 6.0 2.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.8 5.5 3.4 -69 -3.6 -32.0 40.9 29.2 75.0 -2.0 51.2 49.1
Jalen Chambers - 17 9.2 4.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.2 3.5 2.4 -4 -0.2 -4.1 42.4 43.5 76.9 -1.9 56.8 50.8
Zach Skogen - 22 21.1 4.6 3.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 1.3 3.7 5.6 -12 -0.5 -2.9 48.8 32.5 39.1 0.21 55.4 56.7
Blair Crumbie - 16 12.7 4.2 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.6 4.2 2.0 -20 -1.4 -11.7 38.2 37.0 62.5 -0.48 46.8 45.6
Isaiah Ramazani - 21 13.2 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.1 2.1 2.4 -14 -0.7 -7.0 40.0 41.7 61.5 0.02 50.5 45.6
Malik Ware - 11 7.6 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.9 2.7 -24 -3.0 -54.8 38.1 40.0 83.3 -1.28 57.1 47.6
Terrell Fitzgerald - 19 9.2 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 2.2 1.7 -45 -2.5 -52.3 52.4 37.5 50.0 -2.19 56.0 56.0
Josh Lewis - 12 6.2 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.2 1.8 -43 -4.3 -114.7 33.3 42.9 75.0 -1.06 47.7 43.3
Kofi Williams - 14 4.9 1.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 0.7 16 1.6 26.3 44.4 40.0 0 0.58 50.0 50.0
D'Markus Tucker - 10 6.7 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.5 -6 -0.8 -14.4 50.0 0 50.0 -0.56 50.5 50.0
Thailand Evans - 12 5.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.4 -22 -2.4 -31.5 44.4 0 50.0 0.56 45.5 44.4
Carter Cornett - 8 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 -12 -3.0 -417.4 50.0 0.0 0 -0.44 50.0 50.0
Sully Gay - 7 2.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 -5 -1.2 -179.1 0 0 0 -0.56 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG