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Ave Maria

Season: 2026 2024 2022 2020 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: Ave Maria
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 861 (#482) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 762 (#513) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 892 (#624) HCA +75 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -21.3 (#609) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.018 (#611) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -24.5 More → 0.039 (#424) NetEff -24.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -20.9 More → 0.083 (#603) AdjNet -20.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -20.2 More → 0.083 (#602) AdjNet -20.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 59.1 | AdjD 72.2 More → 0.233 (#601) AdjO 59.1 | AdjD 72.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 56.0 | AdjD 69.3 More → 0.230 (#652) AdjO 56.0 | AdjD 69.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.134 (#639) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.144 (#641) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 226 | GP 5 More → 671 (#517) RD 226 | GP 5

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-12-01 vs Barry L 72 - 80
2025-12-15 @ Rollins L 53 - 62
2025-12-20 vs Palm Beach Atl. L 43 - 66
2025-12-21 @ Lynn L 56 - 79
2025-12-30 @ Barry L 50 - 75

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Elena Barnes - 5 32.5 13.4 5.6 1.8 1.0 0.0 1.8 14.2 5.8 - - - 33.8 25.8 68.8 - 42.9 39.4
Ashley Chilson - 5 29.7 11.6 7.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.2 11.6 7.4 - - - 37.9 16.7 92.9 - 45.2 38.8
Gabby Beauperthuy - 5 23.8 9.6 5.8 1.4 0.6 0.0 1.2 9.8 6.4 - - - 36.7 18.2 76.9 - 43.9 38.8
Giavanna Rogers - 5 34.5 8.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 7.8 -0.6 - - - 35.9 32.3 100.0 - 50.2 48.7
Parker Straub - 5 26.9 3.4 3.4 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.6 6.2 0.6 - - - 19.4 13.6 50.0 - 25.9 24.2
Sarah Beaulieu - 3 9.6 3.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 2.7 -0.7 - - - 37.5 60.0 0 - 56.2 56.2
Madelyn Laird - 5 9.0 2.0 2.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.2 3.6 - - - 50.0 0 50.0 - 52.5 50.0
Juliette Sigurnjak - 3 8.4 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.0 - - - 40.0 50.0 0 - 60.0 60.0
Tiffany Le - 5 18.1 1.8 2.4 2.2 1.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 3.6 - - - 30.8 0.0 50.0 - 32.4 30.8
Cortney Smith - 5 7.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.4 -0.6 108 5.1 47.6 28.6 50.0 0 1.27 35.7 35.7
Juliette Nichols - 3 2.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 -0.7 - - - 25.0 0.0 0 - 25.0 25.0
Elle Gunkel - 2 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 - - - 0 0 50.0 - 56.8 0
Raegan Cooper - 5 4.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 100.0 - 53.2 0.0
Elizabeth Beto - 3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Mary Smith - 1 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 123 5.6 17.7 0 0 0 1.24 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG