Austin Peay
Model Outputs
2025-2026 latest available
No materialized model snapshot for 2019 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 933 (#360) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1108 (#125) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 946 (#405) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1039 (#219) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -2.4 (#220) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +4.7 (#283) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 1.000 (#79) | - |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.279 (#545) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 1.000 (#45) | NetEff +66.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.998 (#57) | AdjNet +55.2 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.143 (#519) | AdjNet -15.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.999 (#62) | AdjNet +54.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.132 (#518) | AdjNet -16.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.962 (#68) | AdjO 82.9 | AdjD 47.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.293 (#509) | AdjO 54.3 | AdjD 63.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.651 (#179) | AdjO 59.2 | AdjD 52.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.623 (#280) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.625 (#276) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1040 (#264) | RD 99 | GP 22 |
2019 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-09 | vs | Howard Payne | W | 69 - 62 |
| 2018-11-17 | @ | Millsaps | W | 77 - 59 |
| 2018-11-18 | @ | Hendrix | W | 65 - 54 |
| 2018-11-24 | vs | Texas-Dallas | W | 60 - 57 |
| 2018-11-30 | vs | Millsaps | L | 61 - 70 |
| 2018-12-02 | @ | Rhodes | - | Preview |
| 2018-12-13 | @ | Hardin-Simmons | - | Preview |
| 2018-12-15 | vs | Hendrix | W | 87 - 46 |
| 2018-12-18 | vs | Trinity (TX) | W | 61 - 52 |
| 2018-12-19 | @ | Dallas | W | 78 - 56 |
| 2018-12-29 | @ | Mary Hardin-Baylor | - | Preview |
| 2019-01-04 | @ | JWU (Denver) | W | 94 - 61 |
| 2019-01-05 | @ | Colorado Col. | W | 79 - 54 |
| 2019-01-11 | vs | Southwestern (TX) | L | 67 - 69 |
| 2019-01-12 | vs | Texas Lutheran | W | 77 - 61 |
| 2019-01-18 | @ | Centenary (LA) | W | 74 - 40 |
| 2019-01-22 | vs | Centenary (LA) | W | 70 - 61 |
| 2019-01-25 | vs | Schreiner | W | 75 - 53 |
| 2019-01-29 | vs | Dallas | W | 80 - 41 |
| 2019-02-01 | @ | Trinity (TX) | L | 57 - 67 |
| 2019-02-02 | @ | Schreiner | W | 70 - 41 |
| 2019-02-08 | vs | JWU (Denver) | W | 65 - 33 |
| 2019-02-09 | vs | Colorado Col. | W | 81 - 52 |
| 2019-02-15 | @ | Texas Lutheran | W | 59 - 52 |
| 2019-02-16 | @ | Southwestern (TX) | L | 46 - 50 |
| 2019-02-23 | @ | Texas Lutheran | L | 68 - 72 |
2019 Roster
No roster data available for this season.