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Aurora

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Aurora
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1228 (#19) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1172 (#52) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1205 (#11) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +5.6 (#55) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +0.3 (#345) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.660 (#359) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +20.9 More → 0.885 (#12) NetEff +20.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -0.7 More → 0.479 (#362) AdjNet -0.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -0.9 More → 0.474 (#360) AdjNet -0.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 76.4 | AdjD 76.7 More → 0.494 (#355) AdjO 76.4 | AdjD 76.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 85.1 | AdjD 78.4 More → 0.647 (#152) AdjO 85.1 | AdjD 78.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.640 (#270) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.656 (#252) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 110 | GP 21 More → 1231 (#43) RD 110 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Gustavus Adolphus L 79 - 84
2025-11-08 vs Bethany Lutheran W 84 - 79
2025-11-12 @ North Central (IL) W 65 - 55
2025-11-15 @ Benedictine (IL) L 76 - 87
2025-11-19 @ Wis.-Whitewater L 73 - 82
2025-11-25 @ Asbury W 83 - 80
2025-12-03 vs Wis. Lutheran W 96 - 81
2025-12-06 vs Illinois Tech W 103 - 77
2025-12-14 vs Concordia Wisconsin W 88 - 64
2025-12-17 @ Concordia Chicago W 78 - 73
2025-12-20 vs Albion W 80 - 67
2025-12-30 @ Monmouth (IL) W 78 - 74
2026-01-07 @ Illinois Tech W 85 - 66
2026-01-10 @ Edgewood W 98 - 59
2026-01-14 @ Concordia Wisconsin W 95 - 84
2026-01-17 vs MSOE W 114 - 74
2026-01-21 vs Concordia Chicago W 101 - 79
2026-01-24 @ Lakeland W 90 - 83
2026-01-28 @ Dominican (IL) W 83 - 61
2026-01-31 vs Marian (WI) W 95 - 83
2026-02-04 @ Wis. Lutheran W 103 - 100

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Juan Madrigal - 21 32.1 15.5 5.6 2.7 1.5 0.4 2.0 11.8 12.0 163 7.8 30.1 44.9 29.6 80.6 1.13 56.6 50.8
Mekhi Doby - 18 30.5 15.3 5.4 3.6 1.0 1.2 2.8 11.2 12.4 130 6.8 39.5 47.0 38.2 69.2 -0.67 55.5 50.2
Cullen Rauls - 19 30.4 14.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 0.5 1.7 10.6 8.9 131 6.9 35.0 48.0 40.0 76.7 0.46 62.2 58.9
Devon Richardson - 21 29.0 14.2 10.4 0.7 0.3 1.3 1.9 8.7 16.2 103 4.9 23.8 66.7 0 56.8 -1.51 66.3 66.7
Jeffery Hillmer - 21 34.0 11.7 5.6 2.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 7.9 12.7 263 12.5 47.7 64.2 33.3 63.3 3.47 65.9 65.2
Zerrick Johnson - 21 16.6 8.2 2.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 5.1 6.0 88 4.2 35.4 45.8 52.9 78.6 3.39 60.1 50.0
Gevon Grant - 8 14.9 5.4 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.0 1.1 3.9 4.9 28 3.5 20.5 38.7 23.1 53.3 2.26 48.6 43.5
Josh Tinney - 10 6.1 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 2.3 3.3 21 2.1 21.2 60.9 0.0 50.0 0.94 59.9 60.9
Bryden Gryzmala - 16 8.1 2.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.2 -4 -0.2 -3.3 44.1 42.9 63.6 -0.19 55.4 52.9
Robert Hutson - 14 6.8 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 0.7 3 0.2 4.7 35.5 10.0 53.8 1.69 40.8 37.1
Larry Carthan - 15 8.2 2.0 2.8 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.5 3.5 10 0.7 7.9 40.9 0 66.7 -1.78 50.1 40.9
Isaiah Thompson - 16 8.1 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.8 1.4 2 0.1 2.2 37.9 38.1 66.7 -0.92 52.8 51.7
Alex Ross - 12 4.5 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.8 28 2.3 130.5 35.3 40.0 50.0 2.18 53.1 52.9
Connor Fitzgerald - 3 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 - - - 100.0 100.0 0 - 150.0 150.0
Adam Awender - 3 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 -6 -3.0 -480.0 100.0 100.0 0 0.0 150.0 150.0
Matt Anderson - 3 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 -88 -4.9 -33.4 100.0 0 0 -0.59 100.0 100.0
Isaac Ross - 5 2.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.2 - - - 0.0 0.0 100.0 - 25.8 0.0
Jordan Schroeder - 5 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 - - - 50.0 0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Aramis Currin - 3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.3 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Caleb Burgins - 1 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Kenny Rosario - 2 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Gavin Escobedo - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Devon White - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -18 -1.6 -46.3 0 0 0 -0.4 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG