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Assumption

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2020 2019 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: Assumption
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1152 (#73) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1182 (#52) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1126 (#50) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → +3.2 (#147) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +3.6 (#303) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.773 (#69) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +7.6 More → 0.748 (#210) NetEff +7.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +8.6 More → 0.729 (#126) AdjNet +8.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.0 More → 0.743 (#125) AdjNet +9.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.5 | AdjD 58.0 More → 0.622 (#131) AdjO 63.5 | AdjD 58.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 59.7 | AdjD 55.6 More → 0.591 (#181) AdjO 59.7 | AdjD 55.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.688 (#189) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.682 (#193) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 103 | GP 21 More → 1208 (#40) RD 103 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-15 @ D'Youville W 63 - 43
2025-11-16 @ St. Thomas Aquinas W 49 - 44
2025-11-22 @ Holy Family W 58 - 54
2025-11-25 vs American Int'l L 52 - 71
2025-11-30 vs Mercy W 68 - 56
2025-12-03 @ Pace W 54 - 40
2025-12-06 vs Dominican (NY) W 86 - 40
2025-12-13 vs Southern N.H. W 80 - 67
2025-12-21 @ Dist. Columbia - Incomplete score
2026-01-02 @ Staten Island W 60 - 55
2026-01-10 @ American Int'l L 53 - 68
2026-01-13 @ Southern Conn. St. L 44 - 54
2026-01-17 vs Bentley L 55 - 59
2026-01-21 @ Saint Anselm W 61 - 60
2026-01-24 vs Franklin Pierce - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 @ Southern N.H. - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 vs Saint Michael's - Incomplete score
2026-02-04 @ Adelphi W 51 - 48
2026-02-07 vs Molloy W 63 - 45
2026-02-10 vs Southern Conn. St. W 54 - 48
2026-02-14 @ Bentley L 46 - 68
2026-02-18 vs Saint Anselm W 53 - 48
2026-02-21 @ Franklin Pierce W 62 - 46
2026-02-25 vs Pace W 62 - 47
2026-03-01 vs Southern N.H. L 54 - 60
2026-03-13 vs Holy Family L 38 - 58

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Teagan Curran - 25 33.2 14.4 4.2 2.5 1.0 0.6 2.7 12.4 7.4 56 20 2.8 3.4 38.7 33.3 72.5 -1.22 50.1 45.2
Emily Collins - 24 21.6 10.0 4.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.2 8.2 7.5 74 19 3.9 6.9 44.9 40.5 70.2 2.68 55.2 52.6
Teagan Kamm - 25 23.4 8.4 5.0 1.0 0.2 0.2 1.3 7.1 6.5 36 20 1.8 3.1 46.9 58.3 59.7 -0.78 51.4 48.9
Thai Davis - 25 27.1 6.6 7.3 4.6 2.0 0.7 3.0 6.7 11.4 152 20 7.6 11.3 36.3 20.0 54.4 7.79 41.9 38.4
Maeve Moriarty - 18 28.1 5.8 4.6 1.5 0.5 0.7 1.7 5.3 6.1 -16 14 -1.1 -1.7 33.3 28.2 85.7 -3.67 47.1 39.1
Madison Handrahan - 25 19.9 5.6 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 1.6 6.4 3.2 16 20 0.8 1.8 33.3 27.6 87.5 2.41 43.1 41.8
Laura Johnson-Shedd - 25 25.0 4.4 2.8 1.8 1.3 0.2 1.9 5.4 3.2 17 20 0.8 1.4 37.3 0.0 58.8 -2.43 38.9 37.3
Reese Matela - 10 9.0 2.8 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.9 3.2 11 9 1.2 5.5 52.6 100.0 87.5 0.73 62.2 55.3
Emma Dahl - 25 16.0 2.5 3.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 3.5 2.0 -11 20 -0.6 -1.6 26.1 19.4 52.6 -3.44 32.2 29.5
Morgan Johnson - 25 8.6 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.2 33 19 1.7 8.2 27.3 0.0 36.0 -0.22 30.7 27.3
Kaylee Dupuis - 4 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 - - - - 50.0 0 100.0 -1.2 69.4 50.0
Madison Lawrence - 5 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 - - - - 100.0 0 0 0.29 100.0 100.0
Olivia Found - 10 4.5 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.7 0.1 -15 8 -1.9 -13.1 0.0 0.0 50.0 -2.64 15.6 0.0
Brenna Ducatte - 3 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 - - - - 0 0 0 -1.53 0 0
Lauryn Wright - 7 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 5 5 1.0 23.8 0.0 0.0 0 -0.42 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG