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Assumption

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2020 2019 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: Assumption
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1123 (#77) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1152 (#60) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1126 (#50) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +4.6 (#129) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +3.6 (#303) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.773 (#261) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +7.6 More → 0.748 (#210) NetEff +7.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +8.6 More → 0.729 (#309) AdjNet +8.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.0 More → 0.743 (#308) AdjNet +9.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.5 | AdjD 58.0 More → 0.622 (#313) AdjO 63.5 | AdjD 58.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 59.7 | AdjD 55.6 More → 0.591 (#181) AdjO 59.7 | AdjD 55.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.688 (#188) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.682 (#193) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 102 | GP 21 More → 1209 (#42) RD 102 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-15 @ D'Youville W 63 - 43
2025-11-16 @ St. Thomas Aquinas W 49 - 44
2025-11-22 @ Holy Family W 58 - 54
2025-11-25 vs American Int'l L 52 - 71
2025-11-30 vs Mercy W 68 - 56
2025-12-03 @ Pace W 54 - 40
2025-12-06 vs Dominican (NY) W 86 - 40
2025-12-13 vs Southern N.H. W 80 - 67
2025-12-21 @ Dist. Columbia W 55 - 48
2026-01-02 @ Staten Island W 60 - 55
2026-01-10 @ American Int'l L 53 - 68
2026-01-13 @ Southern Conn. St. L 44 - 54
2026-01-17 vs Bentley L 55 - 59
2026-01-21 @ Saint Anselm W 61 - 60
2026-01-24 vs Franklin Pierce W 72 - 60
2026-01-28 @ Southern N.H. L 51 - 56
2026-01-31 vs Saint Michael's W 66 - 54
2026-02-04 @ Adelphi W 51 - 48
2026-02-07 vs Molloy W 63 - 45

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Teagan Curran - 18 33.1 13.9 4.0 2.8 1.1 0.6 2.9 12.7 6.7 89 3.7 16.2 36.0 29.2 72.3 1.0 47.3 41.7
Nhaikyia Smith - 1 37.0 13.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 10.0 11.0 38 1.7 18.2 50.0 50.0 100.0 2.68 59.7 55.0
Dashani Coleman - 1 32.0 13.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 13.0 1.0 2 0.4 4.8 30.8 40.0 75.0 -0.06 44.0 38.5
Aiyana Ellis - 1 40.0 13.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 9.0 12.0 - - - 22.2 0.0 75.0 - 45.5 22.2
Emily Collins - 17 23.2 11.8 4.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.2 8.9 9.3 44 2.3 15.8 47.7 43.1 77.5 1.65 59.3 56.0
Teagan Kamm - 18 24.1 9.7 5.3 1.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 7.4 7.9 67 2.8 17.6 52.6 66.7 60.4 0.97 56.8 54.9
Thai Davis - 18 27.7 6.8 7.6 4.8 1.9 0.6 3.1 6.4 12.3 72 3.6 14.9 37.9 22.2 50.9 2.7 43.6 40.5
Maeve Moriarty - 11 29.2 6.0 5.3 1.7 0.7 0.7 2.2 5.5 6.7 98 5.8 86.7 31.1 20.8 82.1 1.34 45.0 35.2
Madison Handrahan - 18 18.8 5.6 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 1.5 5.9 3.1 15 0.7 5.8 36.8 33.3 50.0 1.45 47.2 47.2
Laura Johnson-Shedd - 18 24.1 4.1 2.5 1.5 1.1 0.3 1.7 5.3 2.5 52 2.4 13.2 34.7 0.0 57.1 -0.42 36.6 34.7
Reese Matela - 5 8.9 4.0 2.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 5.4 - - - 66.7 100.0 100.0 -0.06 82.8 72.2
Kaylee Dupuis - 1 2.2 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 - - - 100.0 0 100.0 - 106.4 100.0
Aliyah Eason - 1 9.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 -2.0 - - - 16.7 50.0 0 - 25.0 25.0
Emma Dahl - 18 19.0 2.8 3.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.1 4.1 2.3 52 2.4 15.9 27.4 16.7 40.0 -1.0 31.4 30.1
Shaima James Lewis - 1 23.0 2.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 9.0 135 6.1 40.2 50.0 0 0 1.64 50.0 50.0
Kristian Harris - 1 23.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 -3.0 -126 -7.4 -40.2 20.0 0.0 0 -0.93 20.0 20.0
LeAsia Todd - 1 15.0 2.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 7.0 - - - 0 0 100.0 - 113.6 0
Morgan Johnson - 18 9.8 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.5 42 2.1 24.0 33.3 0.0 31.6 2.63 34.0 33.3
Olivia Found - 6 4.9 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.5 -0.2 14 1.4 56.8 0.0 0.0 25.0 -0.36 10.5 0.0
Maya Johnson - 1 6.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 -2.0 42 2.1 24.0 0.0 0 0 2.63 0.0 0.0
Calista Gaymon - 1 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Brenna Ducatte - 2 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 -3 -3.0 -38.3 0 0 0 -0.75 0 0
Madison Lawrence - 2 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 - - - 0 0 0 0.6 0 0
Lauryn Wright - 3 2.4 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 -0.3 9 3.0 163.6 0.0 0.0 0 0.51 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG