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Assumption

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2020 2019 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: Assumption
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1084 (#105) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1089 (#109) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1045 (#134) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → +6.5 (#144) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +1.8 (#298) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.558 (#147) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +66.7 More → 1.000 (#22) NetEff +66.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +7.0 More → 0.691 (#152) AdjNet +7.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +6.8 More → 0.690 (#154) AdjNet +6.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 81.6 | AdjD 76.6 More → 0.611 (#163) AdjO 81.6 | AdjD 76.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 79.5 | AdjD 77.9 More → 0.535 (#239) AdjO 79.5 | AdjD 77.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.617 (#220) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.600 (#230) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 22 More → 1071 (#160) RD 97 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Chestnut Hill W 87 - 64
2025-11-15 vs St. Thomas Aquinas W 98 - 90
2025-11-19 vs Post W 91 - 74
2025-11-22 vs Franklin Pierce W 115 - 70
2025-11-25 @ Bentley L 77 - 79
2025-11-30 vs Queens (NY) W 104 - 91
2025-12-03 @ Pace W 75 - 64
2025-12-06 vs Southern N.H. W 78 - 71
2025-12-17 @ Daemen L 67 - 77
2025-12-19 @ Nova Southeastern L 68 - 125
2025-12-21 @ Caldwell L 92 - 94
2026-01-04 @ Saint Michael's L 70 - 81
2026-01-07 vs Adelphi W 77 - 67
2026-01-10 @ American Int'l W 91 - 80
2026-01-13 @ Southern Conn. St. W 74 - 68
2026-01-17 vs Bentley L 81 - 85
2026-01-21 @ Saint Anselm L 86 - 100
2026-01-24 vs Franklin Pierce - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 @ Southern N.H. - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 vs Saint Michael's L 77 - 79
2026-02-04 @ Adelphi L 59 - 79
2026-02-07 vs American Int'l W 69 - 65
2026-02-10 vs Southern Conn. St. W 66 - 56
2026-02-14 @ Bentley L 62 - 77
2026-02-18 vs Saint Anselm W 94 - 82
2026-02-21 @ Franklin Pierce W 86 - 80
2026-02-25 vs Pace L 59 - 62
2026-02-28 vs Adelphi W 76 - 63
2026-03-04 @ Saint Anselm L 77 - 90
2026-03-14 @ Saint Anselm L 81 - 92

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Tayeshawn Cunningham-Pemberton - 27 27.6 14.3 4.2 1.0 1.9 0.4 2.0 10.3 9.5 - - - - 48.9 34.9 64.4 - 57.4 54.1
Daouda Dembele - 29 25.6 12.1 5.2 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.8 9.4 9.5 - - - - 49.5 30.3 66.4 - 54.8 51.3
Zamareon McCown - 29 30.1 11.5 3.0 4.2 1.3 0.1 1.7 10.0 8.4 - - - - 46.9 27.0 75.9 - 52.8 49.8
Barilugbene Mawo - 28 23.4 10.8 4.1 0.9 1.6 0.5 1.1 8.6 8.2 - - - - 43.8 36.3 70.4 - 57.1 54.8
Noah Payne - 29 22.8 10.0 2.9 2.9 1.3 0.1 2.1 8.3 6.8 - - - - 40.9 30.9 77.6 - 51.7 46.1
Leonard Tangishaka - 28 30.3 9.4 3.5 2.8 1.9 1.4 1.1 8.0 9.9 - - - - 40.9 30.9 84.7 - 52.6 47.6
Luke Michalski - 22 12.0 6.1 2.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.5 4.8 3.5 - - - - 49.1 35.3 62.5 - 54.6 51.9
Jacob Gibbons - 29 18.1 3.6 3.0 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.5 2.7 6.0 - - - - 46.8 30.6 48.8 - 54.2 53.9
Hudson Geremia - 18 9.0 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 3.4 1.9 - - - - 33.9 29.8 70.0 - 47.4 45.2
Connor O'Leary - 17 7.4 2.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 2.4 2.5 - - - - 37.5 25.0 81.2 - 52.1 45.0
Myles Alcindor - 16 7.3 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.7 2.5 1.8 - - - - 17.5 16.7 50.0 - 28.7 22.5
Matthew Breen - 7 4.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 - - - - 75.0 0 0 - 75.0 75.0
Michael Pittman - 6 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Kyle Gaskins - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Kevin Dunn - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Kyle Hicks - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Evan Brown - 3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Luke Latina - 5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG