🐻⬇️🏀

Ashland

Also known as: Ashland
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1161 (#51) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1170 (#55) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1032 (#190) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +11.8 (#73) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +10.6 (#205) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.964 (#142) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +3.4 More → 0.600 (#246) NetEff +3.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +39.8 More → 0.990 (#71) AdjNet +39.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +40.1 More → 0.991 (#70) AdjNet +40.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 79.4 | AdjD 52.8 More → 0.918 (#63) AdjO 79.4 | AdjD 52.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 67.9 | AdjD 60.4 More → 0.664 (#107) AdjO 67.9 | AdjD 60.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.714 (#163) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.705 (#167) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 21 More → 1091 (#124) RD 100 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs UIndy W 68 - 61
2025-11-15 vs Wayne St. (MI) L 77 - 81
2025-11-19 @ Indiana (PA) L 67 - 83
2025-11-22 @ Lee W 89 - 78
2025-11-24 @ Union (TN) W 77 - 71
2025-12-01 @ California (PA) W 77 - 74
2025-12-04 vs Cedarville W 54 - 52
2025-12-06 vs Northwood L 74 - 78
2025-12-11 @ Ky. Wesleyan L 72 - 84
2025-12-13 @ Thomas More L 84 - 94
2026-01-03 vs Ohio Dominican W 71 - 61
2026-01-10 @ Walsh W 74 - 63
2026-01-15 @ Tiffin W 73 - 63
2026-01-22 vs Ursuline W 77 - 48
2026-01-24 @ Hillsdale L 52 - 53
2026-01-29 vs Malone L 65 - 68
2026-01-31 @ Northwood L 58 - 73
2026-02-05 vs Thomas More W 62 - 59
2026-02-07 @ Ky. Wesleyan L 65 - 70

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Corri Vermilya - 6 24.7 16.2 6.0 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.0 11.8 9.0 15 2.5 9.5 50.7 61.9 70.6 1.41 61.8 59.9
Jenna Slates - 19 31.7 15.7 12.2 1.5 0.8 0.3 1.6 12.7 16.2 36 1.7 6.5 50.0 54.5 68.9 2.33 54.5 51.2
Lexi Howe - 8 29.1 13.2 2.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 1.6 11.2 6.0 -3 -0.4 -1.7 41.1 27.3 83.3 1.57 52.7 47.8
Ashley Mullet - 19 30.9 12.9 1.6 3.1 0.6 0.2 2.7 11.4 4.3 39 1.9 7.3 37.3 35.5 86.5 2.04 51.1 46.1
Katelyn Harabedian - 19 24.0 6.8 4.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 1.9 4.8 7.2 50 2.4 15.7 54.9 42.9 76.9 0.48 63.0 59.9
Kyra Hill - 13 19.1 6.2 5.8 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.5 6.3 6.2 36 2.2 8.8 40.2 40.0 71.4 1.04 45.4 42.7
Alysa Lopez - 19 20.4 6.1 2.8 2.3 0.6 0.3 2.0 6.8 3.2 24 1.1 6.4 37.2 4.8 69.2 2.54 40.9 37.6
Jenna Badali - 19 22.2 5.1 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.7 4.6 2.8 38 1.8 12.2 36.4 32.4 88.9 0.61 52.2 50.0
Gia Casalinova - 19 20.8 4.4 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.9 3.5 3.8 22 1.0 4.8 33.3 32.7 73.3 -1.24 52.4 46.2
Benedetta Dell'Orto - 8 9.3 2.6 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.0 0.4 2.6 1.8 5 0.5 6.2 33.3 43.8 0 -0.61 50.0 50.0
Natalie Thomas - 7 11.2 2.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 2.9 0.3 -13 -1.4 -14.3 35.0 23.1 0 -2.43 42.5 42.5
Joplin Yoder - 16 9.2 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 2.6 1.5 -3 -0.2 -3.0 29.3 24.1 0 0.17 37.8 37.8
Taylor Davidson - 10 9.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.3 -25 -2.1 -59.2 27.3 21.4 100.0 -1.48 37.2 34.1

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG