Ashland
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1161 (#51) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1170 (#55) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1032 (#190) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +11.8 (#73) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +10.6 (#205) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.964 (#142) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.600 (#246) | NetEff +3.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.990 (#71) | AdjNet +39.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.991 (#70) | AdjNet +40.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.918 (#63) | AdjO 79.4 | AdjD 52.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.664 (#107) | AdjO 67.9 | AdjD 60.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.714 (#163) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.705 (#167) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1091 (#124) | RD 100 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | UIndy | W | 68 - 61 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Wayne St. (MI) | L | 77 - 81 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Indiana (PA) | L | 67 - 83 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Lee | W | 89 - 78 |
| 2025-11-24 | @ | Union (TN) | W | 77 - 71 |
| 2025-12-01 | @ | California (PA) | W | 77 - 74 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Cedarville | W | 54 - 52 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Northwood | L | 74 - 78 |
| 2025-12-11 | @ | Ky. Wesleyan | L | 72 - 84 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Thomas More | L | 84 - 94 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Ohio Dominican | W | 71 - 61 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Walsh | W | 74 - 63 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Tiffin | W | 73 - 63 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Ursuline | W | 77 - 48 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Hillsdale | L | 52 - 53 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Malone | L | 65 - 68 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Northwood | L | 58 - 73 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Thomas More | W | 62 - 59 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Ky. Wesleyan | L | 65 - 70 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corri Vermilya | - | 6 | 24.7 | 16.2 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 15 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 50.7 | 61.9 | 70.6 | 1.41 | 61.8 | 59.9 |
| Jenna Slates | - | 19 | 31.7 | 15.7 | 12.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 12.7 | 16.2 | 36 | 1.7 | 6.5 | 50.0 | 54.5 | 68.9 | 2.33 | 54.5 | 51.2 |
| Lexi Howe | - | 8 | 29.1 | 13.2 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 11.2 | 6.0 | -3 | -0.4 | -1.7 | 41.1 | 27.3 | 83.3 | 1.57 | 52.7 | 47.8 |
| Ashley Mullet | - | 19 | 30.9 | 12.9 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 39 | 1.9 | 7.3 | 37.3 | 35.5 | 86.5 | 2.04 | 51.1 | 46.1 |
| Katelyn Harabedian | - | 19 | 24.0 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 50 | 2.4 | 15.7 | 54.9 | 42.9 | 76.9 | 0.48 | 63.0 | 59.9 |
| Kyra Hill | - | 13 | 19.1 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 36 | 2.2 | 8.8 | 40.2 | 40.0 | 71.4 | 1.04 | 45.4 | 42.7 |
| Alysa Lopez | - | 19 | 20.4 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 24 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 37.2 | 4.8 | 69.2 | 2.54 | 40.9 | 37.6 |
| Jenna Badali | - | 19 | 22.2 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 38 | 1.8 | 12.2 | 36.4 | 32.4 | 88.9 | 0.61 | 52.2 | 50.0 |
| Gia Casalinova | - | 19 | 20.8 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 22 | 1.0 | 4.8 | 33.3 | 32.7 | 73.3 | -1.24 | 52.4 | 46.2 |
| Benedetta Dell'Orto | - | 8 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 5 | 0.5 | 6.2 | 33.3 | 43.8 | 0 | -0.61 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Natalie Thomas | - | 7 | 11.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 0.3 | -13 | -1.4 | -14.3 | 35.0 | 23.1 | 0 | -2.43 | 42.5 | 42.5 |
| Joplin Yoder | - | 16 | 9.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 1.5 | -3 | -0.2 | -3.0 | 29.3 | 24.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 37.8 | 37.8 |
| Taylor Davidson | - | 10 | 9.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.3 | -25 | -2.1 | -59.2 | 27.3 | 21.4 | 100.0 | -1.48 | 37.2 | 34.1 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG