Arlington Baptist
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 981 (#231) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 889 (#453) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 966 (#445) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -13.8 (#297) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -14.2 (#498) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.024 (#592) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.116 (#608) | AdjNet -17.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.116 (#605) | AdjNet -17.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.196 (#630) | AdjO 77.6 | AdjD 93.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.356 (#498) | AdjO 76.0 | AdjD 82.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.252 (#506) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.273 (#499) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 853 (#421) | RD 282 | GP 3 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | @ | East Central | L | 70 - 106 |
| 2025-11-24 | @ | St. Edward's | L | 64 - 104 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | West Tex. A&M | L | 82 - 102 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davione Allen | - | 2 | 28.1 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 31 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 47.6 | 40.0 | 100.0 | -2.19 | 63.5 | 57.1 |
| J'son Murray | - | 3 | 26.3 | 14.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 10.0 | 9.3 | -36 | -2.4 | -13.2 | 50.0 | 37.5 | 64.7 | -2.01 | 58.7 | 55.0 |
| Marcel Dalcourt | - | 3 | 31.6 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 9.0 | 10.0 | - | - | - | 44.4 | 52.9 | 100.0 | - | 62.8 | 61.1 |
| Trey Walters | - | 3 | 23.7 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 5.3 | - | - | - | 47.6 | 0.0 | 72.7 | - | 54.2 | 47.6 |
| Carron Gipson | - | 2 | 21.6 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 10.5 | 0.5 | - | - | - | 28.6 | 33.3 | 80.0 | - | 36.6 | 31.0 |
| Gary Gray | - | 2 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | - | - | - | 71.4 | 100.0 | 0 | - | 92.9 | 92.9 |
| Javon Rosier | - | 3 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | - | - | - | 54.5 | 60.0 | 0 | - | 68.2 | 68.2 |
| Kameron Ware | - | 3 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | - | - | - | 54.5 | 60.0 | 0 | - | 68.2 | 68.2 |
| Jeremiah Chatman | - | 1 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 8 | 4.0 | 270.4 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.08 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Jamar McCray | - | 3 | 19.5 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | -8 | -0.4 | -4.9 | 36.4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.99 | 36.4 | 36.4 |
| John Gray | - | 3 | 10.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | -11 | -1.4 | -128.2 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 0.78 | 33.9 | 33.3 |
| Ahmad Webster | - | 3 | 12.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | - | - | - | 18.2 | 33.3 | 66.7 | - | 28.4 | 22.7 |
| Michael Grant | - | 3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | -9 | -0.5 | -11.7 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Aaryn Medina | - | 2 | 8.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 16.7 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 21.8 | 16.7 |
| Isaiah Melvo | - | 3 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG