Arkansas State Red Wolves
Model Outputs
2012-2013
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 984 (#175) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 996 (#168) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 989 (#177) | HCA +72 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.2 (#153) | HCA +3.0 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +1.3 (#145) | HCA +2.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.549 (#139) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.535 (#145) | AdjNet +1.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.533 (#145) | AdjNet +1.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.508 (#150) | AdjO 58.4 | AdjD 58.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.525 (#134) | AdjO 58.7 | AdjD 57.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.515 (#153) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.518 (#152) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1010 (#156) | RD 154 | GP 30 |
2013 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-11-09 | @ | Toledo Rockets | L | 34 - 56 |
| 2012-11-12 | @ | UT Martin Skyhawks | L | 62 - 72 |
| 2012-11-15 | vs | Wichita State Shockers | L | 51 - 60 |
| 2012-11-19 | vs | Southeast Missouri State Redhawks | L | 51 - 52 |
| 2012-11-21 | @ | USC Trojans | L | 58 - 72 |
| 2012-11-29 | @ | Florida International Panthers | W | 60 - 57 |
| 2012-12-01 | @ | Florida Atlantic Owls | L | 71 - 79 |
| 2012-12-08 | vs | Central Arkansas Sugar Bears | W | 58 - 51 |
| 2012-12-15 | @ | Missouri State Lady Bears | L | 60 - 83 |
| 2012-12-17 | vs | Austin Peay Governors | W | 75 - 44 |
| 2012-12-19 | vs | Nicholls Colonels | W | 66 - 58 |
| 2012-12-22 | vs | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W | 77 - 53 |
| 2012-12-29 | @ | South Alabama Jaguars | L | 47 - 53 |
| 2013-01-02 | vs | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | L | 70 - 72 |
| 2013-01-06 | vs | Western Kentucky Lady Toppers | W | 63 - 58 |
| 2013-01-09 | vs | Florida International Panthers | W | 49 - 43 |
| 2013-01-12 | @ | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W | 48 - 39 |
| 2013-01-20 | vs | UL Monroe Warhawks | W | 71 - 58 |
| 2013-01-24 | @ | Troy Trojans | W | 87 - 74 |
| 2013-01-26 | vs | Florida Atlantic Owls | W | 74 - 56 |
| 2013-01-30 | vs | South Alabama Jaguars | W | 72 - 61 |
| 2013-02-03 | vs | North Texas Mean Green | L | 62 - 64 |
| 2013-02-06 | @ | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | L | 49 - 93 |
| 2013-02-09 | @ | Western Kentucky Lady Toppers | W | 78 - 74 |
| 2013-02-13 | vs | Little Rock Trojans | L | 50 - 54 |
| 2013-02-16 | @ | UL Monroe Warhawks | W | 77 - 58 |
| 2013-02-23 | vs | Troy Trojans | W | 71 - 49 |
| 2013-02-27 | @ | North Texas Mean Green | L | 51 - 53 |
| 2013-03-02 | @ | Little Rock Trojans | L | 50 - 58 |
| 2013-03-09 | vs | Florida International Panthers | L | 50 - 57 |
2013 Roster
No roster data available for this season.