Arkansas State Red Wolves
Model Outputs
2004-2005
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1205 (#45) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1171 (#59) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1104 (#49) | HCA +92 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +11.0 (#66) | HCA +3.6 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +12.5 (#55) | HCA +3.4 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.793 (#55) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.865 (#74) | AdjNet +16.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.869 (#74) | AdjNet +16.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.721 (#65) | AdjO 69.5 | AdjD 59.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.689 (#47) | AdjO 67.9 | AdjD 59.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.778 (#58) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.773 (#57) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1179 (#53) | RD 103 | GP 32 |
2005 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-11-19 | @ | Minnesota Golden Gophers | L | 45 - 82 |
| 2004-11-20 | @ | Valparaiso Beacons | W | 82 - 61 |
| 2004-11-26 | vs | UTEP Miners | W | 87 - 63 |
| 2004-11-28 | @ | Louisiana Tech Lady Techsters | L | 50 - 67 |
| 2004-12-02 | @ | Alabama A&M Bulldogs | L | 62 - 66 |
| 2004-12-05 | vs | TCU Horned Frogs | W | 68 - 64 |
| 2004-12-11 | vs | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions | W | 85 - 43 |
| 2004-12-18 | @ | Texas Tech Lady Raiders | L | 53 - 87 |
| 2004-12-19 | @ | Western Michigan Broncos | W | 75 - 43 |
| 2004-12-21 | @ | Stephen F. Austin Ladyjacks | L | 65 - 78 |
| 2004-12-29 | @ | UTEP Miners | L | 61 - 67 |
| 2005-01-02 | vs | LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds | W | 80 - 46 |
| 2005-01-08 | @ | Florida International Panthers | W | 85 - 74 |
| 2005-01-13 | @ | Western Kentucky Lady Toppers | L | 75 - 83 |
| 2005-01-15 | @ | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | L | 55 - 56 |
| 2005-01-20 | vs | North Texas Mean Green | W | 75 - 56 |
| 2005-01-22 | vs | Denver Pioneers | W | 72 - 45 |
| 2005-01-26 | @ | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | W | 87 - 73 |
| 2005-01-30 | vs | Little Rock Trojans | W | 69 - 43 |
| 2005-02-03 | @ | South Alabama Jaguars | W | 65 - 37 |
| 2005-02-07 | vs | New Orleans Privateers | W | 66 - 44 |
| 2005-02-10 | @ | Little Rock Trojans | W | 69 - 62 |
| 2005-02-12 | vs | Florida International Panthers | W | 62 - 51 |
| 2005-02-17 | vs | Western Kentucky Lady Toppers | W | 80 - 70 |
| 2005-02-19 | vs | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | W | 72 - 69 |
| 2005-02-24 | @ | New Mexico State Aggies | W | 71 - 53 |
| 2005-02-26 | @ | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L | 64 - 66 |
| 2005-03-06 | vs | South Alabama Jaguars | W | 61 - 53 |
| 2005-03-07 | @ | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L | 49 - 61 |
| 2005-03-17 | vs | Mississippi State Bulldogs | W | 78 - 61 |
| 2005-03-21 | vs | Arkansas Razorbacks | W | 98 - 84 |
| 2005-03-24 | @ | Iowa Hawkeyes | L | 52 - 66 |
2005 Roster
No roster data available for this season.