Arkansas St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1078 (#132) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1001 (#277) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +43.5 (#4) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.993 (#54) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.990 (#23) | AdjNet +39.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.990 (#22) | AdjNet +39.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.952 (#16) | AdjO 100.6 | AdjD 67.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.839 (#7) | AdjO 91.2 | AdjD 73.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.914 (#6) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.897 (#6) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1089 (#129) | RD 268 | GP 1 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Arkansas Tech | W | 107 - 63 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Caldwell | - | 1 | 24.6 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | - | - | - | 71.4 | 60.0 | 100.0 | - | 97.0 | 92.9 |
| Matt Hayman | - | 1 | 20.0 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 57.1 | 75.0 | - | 72.3 | 70.0 |
| Joey Chammaa | - | 1 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | - | 75.2 | 58.3 |
| Christian Harmon | - | 1 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 15.0 | - | - | - | 44.4 | 37.5 | 100.0 | - | 65.8 | 61.1 |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth | - | 1 | 21.8 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 100.0 | 66.7 | - | 112.8 | 125.0 |
| Royal Blue Smith | - | 1 | 20.1 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 14 | 1.3 | 9.5 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 75.0 | 2.81 | 70.9 | 66.7 |
| Fredy-Salam Sylla | - | 1 | 21.9 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 16.7 | 0 | - | 45.0 | 45.0 |
| Jalen Hampton | - | 1 | 18.9 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 73.5 | 80.0 |
| Aly Tounkara | - | 1 | 21.1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Chandler Jackson | - | 1 | 16.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 122 | 5.8 | 28.5 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.56 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG