Ark.-Fort Smith
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1034 (#218) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1036 (#298) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 987 (#537) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +20.7 (#120) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 1.000 (#18) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.996 (#14) | AdjNet +47.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.997 (#16) | AdjNet +47.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.957 (#25) | AdjO 90.4 | AdjD 56.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.786 (#37) | AdjO 85.2 | AdjD 70.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.877 (#40) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.849 (#43) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1084 (#222) | RD 350 | GP 2 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | vs | Ozarks (AR) | W | 100 - 46 |
| 2025-11-20 | vs | Hendrix | W | 110 - 41 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zane Restelli | - | 2 | 18.6 | 16.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 15.0 | - | - | - | 59.1 | 62.5 | 66.7 | - | 70.8 | 70.5 |
| Kanaan Holder | - | 2 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 6.5 | - | - | - | 55.6 | 60.0 | 33.3 | - | 62.1 | 63.9 |
| Jack Hoth | - | 2 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 10.5 | - | - | - | 69.2 | 60.0 | 100.0 | - | 82.9 | 80.8 |
| Aiden Buckmon | - | 2 | 13.9 | 10.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 11.0 | - | - | - | 88.9 | 80.0 | 100.0 | - | 111.2 | 111.1 |
| Tyler Frederick | - | 2 | 18.5 | 10.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 11.5 | - | - | - | 63.6 | 50.0 | 100.0 | - | 79.5 | 72.7 |
| Antwan Robinson | - | 2 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 14 | 1.0 | 46.7 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 100.0 | 0.09 | 60.5 | 57.1 |
| Brandon Scott | - | 2 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 84 | 6.5 | 61.8 | 70.0 | 66.7 | 0 | 1.83 | 90.0 | 90.0 |
| VJ Reeves | - | 2 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 7.5 | - | - | - | 45.5 | 42.9 | 0 | - | 59.1 | 59.1 |
| Jace Linenberger | - | 2 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 80.0 | 0 | 75.0 | - | 81.4 | 80.0 |
| Jarren McAllister | - | 2 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 72.7 | 66.7 |
| Kameron Johnson | - | 2 | 11.4 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 11 | 1.0 | 26.3 | 22.2 | 0.0 | 75.0 | -0.38 | 32.5 | 22.2 |
| Christian Moore | - | 2 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 9.5 | 17 | 1.5 | 34.1 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.38 | 77.3 | 66.7 |
| C.J. Ford | - | 2 | 18.1 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 14.3 | 20.0 | 100.0 | - | 31.7 | 21.4 |
| Donovan Black | - | 2 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rex Krout | - | 2 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Markece Young | - | 2 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 32 | 1.6 | 23.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.88 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG