Arcadia
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1108 (#64) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1158 (#81) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1143 (#64) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +7.2 (#116) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +2.3 (#330) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.602 (#406) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.512 (#356) | NetEff +0.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.650 (#324) | AdjNet +5.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.631 (#328) | AdjNet +4.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.556 (#328) | AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 63.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.623 (#207) | AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 56.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.663 (#248) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.674 (#240) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1256 (#44) | RD 98 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | @ | TCNJ | W | 87 - 75 |
| 2025-11-12 | vs | Gwynedd Mercy | W | 65 - 45 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Amherst | L | 55 - 76 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Immaculata | W | 72 - 66 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Chris. Newport | L | 68 - 93 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Muhlenberg | W | 65 - 57 |
| 2025-12-09 | @ | Penn St.-Abington | L | 66 - 67 |
| 2025-12-28 | @ | Saint Joseph's | L | 38 - 108 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Elizabethtown | W | 82 - 68 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Stevens | L | 52 - 63 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Misericordia | W | 68 - 54 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Lebanon Valley | W | 68 - 57 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | DeSales | L | 45 - 54 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | King's (PA) | W | 53 - 46 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | FDU-Florham | W | 74 - 41 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Stevens | W | 84 - 60 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Misericordia | W | 54 - 51 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Delaware Valley | L | 0 - 0 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delaney Bell | - | 16 | 34.8 | 14.9 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 11.2 | 16.1 | 93 | 5.2 | 22.3 | 50.8 | 30.2 | 76.8 | 3.14 | 58.4 | 54.5 |
| Hanna Rhoades | - | 16 | 32.0 | 13.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 131 | 6.9 | 34.7 | 39.6 | 36.6 | 85.0 | 0.69 | 55.9 | 51.9 |
| Taylor Koenig | - | 14 | 29.9 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 64 | 3.8 | 28.3 | 42.1 | 42.7 | 78.3 | 2.16 | 54.0 | 51.8 |
| Anastasia Bowman | - | 15 | 24.2 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 98 | 5.4 | 30.3 | 43.2 | 16.7 | 57.5 | 2.59 | 48.0 | 44.7 |
| Abby Beam | - | 16 | 33.0 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 141 | 7.4 | 35.7 | 36.1 | 32.3 | 65.6 | 3.44 | 50.0 | 46.4 |
| Abby Arnold | - | 15 | 17.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 89 | 5.2 | 49.1 | 46.9 | 40.6 | 81.8 | 1.58 | 59.6 | 57.0 |
| Delaney Finn | - | 16 | 13.2 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 28 | 1.5 | 13.8 | 30.4 | 26.3 | 0 | -0.4 | 41.3 | 41.3 |
| Maggie O'Shea | - | 13 | 8.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 34 | 2.1 | 27.5 | 35.7 | 40.0 | 83.3 | 2.09 | 57.1 | 50.0 |
| Ava Gumienny | - | 11 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -23 | -2.1 | -30.2 | 50.0 | 62.5 | 0 | 0.63 | 70.8 | 70.8 |
| Elaina Foley | - | 4 | 11.2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 15 | 3.8 | 14.2 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.53 | 29.1 | 33.3 |
| Madelyn Weaver | - | 13 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | -0.2 | 34 | 2.1 | 35.5 | 23.5 | 28.6 | 25.0 | -1.8 | 29.3 | 29.4 |
| Morgan Bigler | - | 8 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 9 | 0.9 | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1.08 | 113.6 | 0 |
| Ella Henritzy | - | 2 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 4 | 1.0 | 46.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG