🐻⬇️🏀

Arcadia

Also known as: Arcadia
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1213 (#52) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1172 (#88) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1143 (#64) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → +7.4 (#137) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +2.3 (#330) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.602 (#406) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +0.4 More → 0.512 (#356) NetEff +0.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +5.4 More → 0.650 (#324) AdjNet +5.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +4.5 More → 0.631 (#328) AdjNet +4.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 63.3 More → 0.556 (#328) AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 63.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 56.0 More → 0.623 (#207) AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 56.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.664 (#246) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.675 (#239) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 21 More → 1256 (#43) RD 98 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ TCNJ - Incomplete score
2025-11-12 vs Gwynedd Mercy - Incomplete score
2025-11-16 @ Amherst - Incomplete score
2025-11-19 @ Immaculata - Incomplete score
2025-11-22 vs Chris. Newport - Incomplete score
2025-11-25 vs Muhlenberg - Incomplete score
2025-12-09 @ Penn St.-Abington - Incomplete score
2025-12-28 @ Saint Joseph's - Incomplete score
2025-12-30 @ Elizabethtown - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 @ Stevens - Incomplete score
2026-01-14 vs Misericordia - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 vs Lebanon Valley - Incomplete score
2026-01-21 @ DeSales - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ King's (PA) - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 vs FDU-Florham - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 vs Stevens - Incomplete score
2026-02-04 @ Misericordia - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 @ Delaware Valley - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Delaney Bell - 15 35.3 15.5 10.2 3.1 1.3 1.4 3.1 11.5 16.9 93 5.2 22.3 51.2 31.0 76.8 0.43 59.0 54.9
Hanna Rhoades - 15 32.9 14.7 3.0 2.6 0.9 0.3 2.6 11.7 7.1 131 6.9 34.7 40.3 36.7 85.0 2.94 56.8 52.8
Taylor Koenig - 13 29.8 12.9 6.2 1.9 1.0 0.6 1.6 11.3 9.7 64 3.8 28.3 40.8 43.5 78.3 0.06 53.5 51.0
Abby Beam - 15 33.0 7.4 3.7 3.5 1.5 0.2 2.3 6.1 8.0 141 7.4 35.7 38.5 33.3 65.6 2.49 52.8 49.5
Anastasia Bowman - 14 24.3 7.3 3.9 2.0 0.4 0.1 1.9 6.4 5.4 98 5.4 30.3 43.8 18.8 55.3 1.54 48.2 45.5
Abby Arnold - 14 17.8 5.9 3.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.9 4.4 5.5 89 5.2 49.1 48.4 43.3 81.8 1.02 61.3 58.9
Delaney Finn - 15 13.0 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 2.9 1.8 28 1.5 13.8 30.2 25.7 0 -0.47 40.7 40.7
Ava Gumienny - 10 5.8 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.5 -23 -2.1 -30.2 60.0 62.5 0 -3.23 85.0 85.0
Maggie O'Shea - 12 8.3 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 34 2.1 27.5 38.5 40.0 83.3 2.6 60.7 53.8
Elaina Foley - 4 11.2 1.0 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.5 2.5 15 3.8 14.2 33.3 0 0.0 1.91 29.1 33.3
Madelyn Weaver - 12 6.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.1 34 2.1 35.5 26.7 28.6 25.0 -1.91 32.8 33.3
Morgan Bigler - 7 3.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.9 9 0.9 21.3 0 0 100.0 - 113.6 0
Ella Henritzy - 2 1.8 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4 1.0 46.4 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG