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Arcadia

Also known as: Arcadia
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1123 (#79) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1064 (#222) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1100 (#95) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +0.4 (#115) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -1.5 (#371) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.497 (#473) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -7.6 More → 0.295 (#456) AdjNet -7.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -7.9 More → 0.286 (#460) AdjNet -7.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.9 | AdjD 74.5 More → 0.377 (#453) AdjO 68.9 | AdjD 74.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 68.8 More → 0.586 (#236) AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 68.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.565 (#342) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.576 (#335) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 99 | GP 21 More → 1141 (#108) RD 99 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ Penn St.-Abington W 73 - 59
2025-11-12 vs Gwynedd Mercy W 75 - 55
2025-11-14 vs Wash. & Jeff. L 60 - 62
2025-11-15 @ Widener W 94 - 74
2025-11-19 @ York (PA) L 71 - 77
2025-11-25 vs Immaculata W 85 - 74
2025-12-03 vs Haverford W 75 - 50
2025-12-06 @ Alvernia L 61 - 72
2025-12-14 vs Wilkes L 71 - 73
2025-12-28 @ Saint Joseph's L 65 - 87
2025-12-30 @ Lehman W 75 - 74
2026-01-03 vs Susquehanna W 82 - 76
2026-01-07 vs Delaware Valley L 61 - 63
2026-01-10 @ Stevens W 66 - 65
2026-01-14 @ Misericordia W 82 - 69
2026-01-17 vs Lebanon Valley W 83 - 70
2026-01-21 vs DeSales W 83 - 73
2026-01-24 @ King's (PA) W 76 - 53
2026-01-28 @ FDU-Florham W 84 - 60
2026-01-31 vs Stevens L 79 - 82
2026-02-04 vs Misericordia W 74 - 60

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ben Troyer - 1 23.0 20.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 11.0 15.0 45 3.0 14.9 72.7 50.0 25.0 -0.95 78.4 86.4
Jamison Lynam - 20 33.5 19.1 2.7 3.2 1.6 0.0 2.2 14.0 10.3 117 6.5 27.5 50.4 46.8 79.7 1.83 62.3 59.6
Nas Johnson - 16 30.6 16.1 3.5 4.0 1.0 0.2 2.8 12.4 9.6 74 5.3 16.6 41.2 29.9 80.0 3.89 54.9 48.5
Cooper Haberern - 1 30.0 14.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 11.0 7.0 112 8.0 24.5 45.5 44.4 0 3.99 63.6 63.6
Tate Landis - 1 32.0 12.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 77 5.1 18.5 66.7 60.0 50.0 2.48 87.2 91.7
Joshua Okocha - 20 28.9 9.9 7.2 2.0 1.6 0.6 1.1 8.2 11.9 88 4.9 25.4 41.7 22.0 63.4 3.13 50.0 45.1
Corey Attivo - 20 26.5 9.3 4.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.1 6.7 8.3 76 4.2 19.3 57.5 33.3 76.0 -0.81 64.1 62.3
Josh Parks - 19 28.6 8.5 6.3 1.5 1.3 0.7 1.1 8.0 9.2 110 6.5 33.8 39.5 28.6 65.2 2.03 49.7 48.0
Darius Isaac - 18 16.1 4.5 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.0 1.1 4.4 3.1 -13 -0.9 -8.2 31.2 25.6 74.1 -2.81 44.1 38.1
Kyndall Crawford - 18 10.2 4.3 3.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 3.1 4.7 28 1.8 20.2 60.0 40.0 88.9 0.99 66.1 63.6
Amyr Walker - 20 15.9 4.0 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.8 3.1 6.0 -4 -0.2 -1.6 51.6 10.0 55.2 -1.9 54.2 52.4
Drew Pape - 1 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 17 1.4 25.9 100.0 0 0 0.35 100.0 100.0
Aleks Smith - 1 17.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 21 1.5 8.8 100.0 0 0 0.93 100.0 100.0
Colin Treude - 1 12.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 49 3.5 49.1 100.0 0 0 -0.06 100.0 100.0
Debarrin Norman - 12 5.4 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 2.4 -2 -0.2 -3.8 70.0 0 40.0 -0.23 62.5 70.0
Marquis Kubish - 3 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 - - - 66.7 0 0.0 - 51.5 66.7
Keenan Reiss - 10 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 -12 -1.7 -62.5 37.5 25.0 50.0 -0.85 47.0 43.8
Alex Hermann - 15 7.7 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 8 0.6 15.5 31.2 14.3 22.2 0.65 32.6 34.4
Jordan Taylor - 12 5.3 0.8 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.6 11 0.9 31.8 25.0 25.0 100.0 1.37 46.1 31.2
Tysciere Jackson - 9 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.4 -5 -0.7 -27.0 37.5 0.0 0.0 -0.12 35.5 37.5
Tymir Smalls - 6 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 -3 -0.8 -39.3 33.3 33.3 50.0 -0.28 51.5 50.0
Cole Willey - 8 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 -8 -1.3 -120.8 66.7 0.0 0 -0.55 66.7 66.7
Chris Williams - 11 3.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 -78 -4.1 -23.1 40.0 50.0 0 -2.19 60.0 60.0
Latrell Bullock - 7 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0 0.43 150.0 150.0
Kahmai Clark - 7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 -3 -0.8 -39.3 0 0 75.0 -0.28 85.2 0
Jorden Jones - 8 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -4 -0.8 -52.5 0 0 0 -0.28 0 0
Simon Dlugi - 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15 1.2 31.6 0 0 0 -0.95 0 0
Nick Schroeder - 1 14.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 54 3.6 18.0 0.0 0.0 0 2.69 0.0 0.0
David Weaver - 1 9.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 24 2.2 44.6 0.0 0.0 0 0.55 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG