Arcadia
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1123 (#79) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1064 (#222) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1100 (#95) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.4 (#115) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -1.5 (#371) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.497 (#473) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.295 (#456) | AdjNet -7.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.286 (#460) | AdjNet -7.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.377 (#453) | AdjO 68.9 | AdjD 74.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.586 (#236) | AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 68.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.565 (#342) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.576 (#335) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1141 (#108) | RD 99 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Penn St.-Abington | W | 73 - 59 |
| 2025-11-12 | vs | Gwynedd Mercy | W | 75 - 55 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Wash. & Jeff. | L | 60 - 62 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Widener | W | 94 - 74 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | York (PA) | L | 71 - 77 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Immaculata | W | 85 - 74 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Haverford | W | 75 - 50 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Alvernia | L | 61 - 72 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs | Wilkes | L | 71 - 73 |
| 2025-12-28 | @ | Saint Joseph's | L | 65 - 87 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Lehman | W | 75 - 74 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Susquehanna | W | 82 - 76 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Delaware Valley | L | 61 - 63 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Stevens | W | 66 - 65 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Misericordia | W | 82 - 69 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Lebanon Valley | W | 83 - 70 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | DeSales | W | 83 - 73 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | King's (PA) | W | 76 - 53 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | FDU-Florham | W | 84 - 60 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Stevens | L | 79 - 82 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Misericordia | W | 74 - 60 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Troyer | - | 1 | 23.0 | 20.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 15.0 | 45 | 3.0 | 14.9 | 72.7 | 50.0 | 25.0 | -0.95 | 78.4 | 86.4 |
| Jamison Lynam | - | 20 | 33.5 | 19.1 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 14.0 | 10.3 | 117 | 6.5 | 27.5 | 50.4 | 46.8 | 79.7 | 1.83 | 62.3 | 59.6 |
| Nas Johnson | - | 16 | 30.6 | 16.1 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 74 | 5.3 | 16.6 | 41.2 | 29.9 | 80.0 | 3.89 | 54.9 | 48.5 |
| Cooper Haberern | - | 1 | 30.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 112 | 8.0 | 24.5 | 45.5 | 44.4 | 0 | 3.99 | 63.6 | 63.6 |
| Tate Landis | - | 1 | 32.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 77 | 5.1 | 18.5 | 66.7 | 60.0 | 50.0 | 2.48 | 87.2 | 91.7 |
| Joshua Okocha | - | 20 | 28.9 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 88 | 4.9 | 25.4 | 41.7 | 22.0 | 63.4 | 3.13 | 50.0 | 45.1 |
| Corey Attivo | - | 20 | 26.5 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 76 | 4.2 | 19.3 | 57.5 | 33.3 | 76.0 | -0.81 | 64.1 | 62.3 |
| Josh Parks | - | 19 | 28.6 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 110 | 6.5 | 33.8 | 39.5 | 28.6 | 65.2 | 2.03 | 49.7 | 48.0 |
| Darius Isaac | - | 18 | 16.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | -13 | -0.9 | -8.2 | 31.2 | 25.6 | 74.1 | -2.81 | 44.1 | 38.1 |
| Kyndall Crawford | - | 18 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 28 | 1.8 | 20.2 | 60.0 | 40.0 | 88.9 | 0.99 | 66.1 | 63.6 |
| Amyr Walker | - | 20 | 15.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 6.0 | -4 | -0.2 | -1.6 | 51.6 | 10.0 | 55.2 | -1.9 | 54.2 | 52.4 |
| Drew Pape | - | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 17 | 1.4 | 25.9 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.35 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Aleks Smith | - | 1 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 21 | 1.5 | 8.8 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.93 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Colin Treude | - | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 49 | 3.5 | 49.1 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.06 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Debarrin Norman | - | 12 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.4 | -2 | -0.2 | -3.8 | 70.0 | 0 | 40.0 | -0.23 | 62.5 | 70.0 |
| Marquis Kubish | - | 3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 51.5 | 66.7 |
| Keenan Reiss | - | 10 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -12 | -1.7 | -62.5 | 37.5 | 25.0 | 50.0 | -0.85 | 47.0 | 43.8 |
| Alex Hermann | - | 15 | 7.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 8 | 0.6 | 15.5 | 31.2 | 14.3 | 22.2 | 0.65 | 32.6 | 34.4 |
| Jordan Taylor | - | 12 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 11 | 0.9 | 31.8 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 1.37 | 46.1 | 31.2 |
| Tysciere Jackson | - | 9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | -5 | -0.7 | -27.0 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.12 | 35.5 | 37.5 |
| Tymir Smalls | - | 6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -3 | -0.8 | -39.3 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 50.0 | -0.28 | 51.5 | 50.0 |
| Cole Willey | - | 8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -8 | -1.3 | -120.8 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.55 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Chris Williams | - | 11 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -78 | -4.1 | -23.1 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 0 | -2.19 | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Latrell Bullock | - | 7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.43 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| Kahmai Clark | - | 7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -3 | -0.8 | -39.3 | 0 | 0 | 75.0 | -0.28 | 85.2 | 0 |
| Jorden Jones | - | 8 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -4 | -0.8 | -52.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.28 | 0 | 0 |
| Simon Dlugi | - | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15 | 1.2 | 31.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.95 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Schroeder | - | 1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 54 | 3.6 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2.69 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| David Weaver | - | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 24 | 2.2 | 44.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG