American University
Model Outputs
2002-2003
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1010 (#155) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 999 (#159) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1052 (#95) | HCA +112 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +1.2 (#149) | HCA +3.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +4.3 (#105) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.690 (#64) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.512 (#161) | AdjNet +0.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.513 (#161) | AdjNet +0.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.532 (#144) | AdjO 65.0 | AdjD 63.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.619 (#59) | AdjO 67.8 | AdjD 62.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.563 (#132) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.580 (#116) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 981 (#171) | RD 130 | GP 30 |
2003 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-11-22 | @ | Missouri | L | 57 - 72 |
| 2002-11-25 | @ | UNC Greensboro | L | 79 - 80 |
| 2002-11-29 | @ | Virginia Tech | L | 61 - 69 |
| 2002-12-03 | @ | Liberty | W | 72 - 67 |
| 2002-12-06 | vs | Radford | W | 73 - 49 |
| 2002-12-09 | vs | Howard | W | 61 - 58 |
| 2002-12-20 | @ | College of Charleston | L | 65 - 68 |
| 2002-12-22 | @ | Fairfield | L | 57 - 68 |
| 2002-12-28 | vs | Elon | W | 76 - 51 |
| 2002-12-30 | @ | Wagner | L | 55 - 69 |
| 2003-01-02 | vs | George Washington | W | 81 - 75 |
| 2003-01-04 | vs | Saint Francis (PA) | L | 54 - 64 |
| 2003-01-08 | @ | Pennsylvania | L | 55 - 66 |
| 2003-01-11 | @ | Bucknell | L | 52 - 63 |
| 2003-01-15 | vs | Navy | W | 70 - 53 |
| 2003-01-18 | @ | Lehigh | L | 54 - 57 |
| 2003-01-24 | vs | Colgate | W | 58 - 55 |
| 2003-01-26 | vs | Holy Cross | W | 72 - 49 |
| 2003-01-31 | @ | Lafayette | L | 66 - 67 |
| 2003-02-02 | @ | Army | W | 79 - 64 |
| 2003-02-08 | vs | Bucknell | W | 70 - 56 |
| 2003-02-12 | @ | Navy | W | 64 - 61 |
| 2003-02-15 | vs | Lehigh | W | 69 - 59 |
| 2003-02-21 | @ | Holy Cross | L | 66 - 68 |
| 2003-02-23 | @ | Colgate | L | 59 - 60 |
| 2003-02-27 | vs | Army | W | 77 - 43 |
| 2003-03-01 | vs | Lafayette | W | 79 - 62 |
| 2003-03-08 | N | Navy | W | 72 - 57 |
| 2003-03-09 | N | Lafayette | W | 74 - 55 |
| 2003-03-14 | @ | Holy Cross | L | 64 - 72 |
2003 Roster
No roster data available for this season.