Alvernia
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1012 (#227) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 996 (#328) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1000 (#441) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -4.3 (#235) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -9.5 (#492) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.504 (#447) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.410 (#383) | NetEff -2.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.309 (#445) | AdjNet -7.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.286 (#452) | AdjNet -7.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.396 (#444) | AdjO 60.7 | AdjD 65.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.393 (#543) | AdjO 57.5 | AdjD 62.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.389 (#463) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.386 (#472) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 979 (#342) | RD 96 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Notre Dame (MD) | W | 59 - 48 |
| 2025-11-10 | vs | Penn St. Brandywine | W | 82 - 31 |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | Ursinus | L | 49 - 51 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Penn St. Harrisburg | W | 74 - 69 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | McDaniel | L | 37 - 77 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs | Immaculata | L | 55 - 77 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Muhlenberg | L | 43 - 52 |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | Lehman | W | 78 - 72 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Stevenson | W | 56 - 52 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | York (PA) | L | 59 - 62 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Albright | L | 52 - 53 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Hood | W | 46 - 42 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Messiah | L | 42 - 57 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Eastern | L | 54 - 70 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Stevenson | W | 61 - 50 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | York (PA) | W | 62 - 57 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Albright | W | 77 - 68 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shealyn Ricks | - | 1 | 25.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 18 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 87.5 | 2.22 | 42.8 | 28.6 |
| Breana Grim | - | 1 | 34.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 66.7 | -1.42 | 55.4 | 50.0 |
| Olivia Shutter | - | 1 | 34.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -16 | -1.0 | -3.7 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.19 | 45.8 | 33.3 |
| Jennah DeGout | - | 16 | 18.1 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 39 | 1.9 | 12.9 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 69.0 | 0.27 | 56.0 | 50.0 |
| Taryn Woodson | - | 16 | 22.6 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 8.3 | 11.2 | -39 | -1.9 | -11.2 | 51.1 | 0 | 39.7 | 0.5 | 50.2 | 51.1 |
| Olivia Burke | - | 11 | 23.6 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 8 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 35.7 | 18.9 | 56.2 | 0.23 | 42.4 | 39.3 |
| Kyla Reed | - | 16 | 17.2 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 5.9 | 1.2 | -19 | -0.9 | -6.5 | 28.7 | 27.5 | 68.2 | 0.6 | 38.6 | 34.6 |
| Alyssa Dougherty | - | 1 | 28.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | -56 | -3.5 | -14.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -3.47 | 56.3 | 50.0 |
| Makenna Zimmerman | - | 1 | 33.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | -10 | -0.6 | -2.2 | 66.7 | 0 | 25.0 | 4.23 | 52.5 | 66.7 |
| Jordyn Ingelido | - | 16 | 31.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | -38 | -1.8 | -7.5 | 31.3 | 17.2 | 57.9 | -1.27 | 36.3 | 33.8 |
| Samantha Wade | - | 16 | 22.1 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 6.2 | 3.4 | -15 | -0.7 | -3.6 | 31.0 | 26.8 | 44.4 | 0.41 | 37.0 | 36.5 |
| Ryleigh Poole | - | 16 | 34.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | -40 | -1.9 | -7.4 | 25.0 | 21.9 | 63.6 | 1.79 | 36.9 | 33.0 |
| Meghan Ruth | - | 12 | 20.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.8 | 2.9 | -54 | -3.2 | -21.7 | 30.4 | 0.0 | 61.1 | 0.72 | 34.5 | 30.4 |
| Alani White | - | 14 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 26 | 1.4 | 20.5 | 40.4 | 0 | 64.3 | 0.68 | 46.6 | 40.4 |
| Alaina Neal | - | 1 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -28 | -1.9 | -30.9 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.3 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Sam Hase | - | 1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 | -12 | -1.2 | -163.6 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | -0.25 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Grace Dobrzynski | - | 15 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 55 | 3.1 | 37.7 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 68.8 | 3.81 | 50.0 | 44.6 |
| Lydia Powers | - | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 | -42 | -3.0 | -35.3 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.22 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Devon Chamberlain | - | 8 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 0.2 | -1 | -0.1 | -1.7 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 1.11 | 43.3 | 43.3 |
| Paige Garner | - | 6 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | -0.3 | -1 | -0.1 | -3.8 | 18.2 | 22.2 | 100.0 | 1.37 | 33.7 | 27.3 |
| Jordan Reynolds | - | 13 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | -0.5 | 20 | 1.4 | 22.9 | 25.0 | 9.1 | 50.0 | 1.53 | 29.1 | 27.1 |
| Mackenzie Brezovec | - | 1 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | -8 | -0.5 | -9.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.67 | 10.2 | 0.0 |
| Mya Whittington | - | 4 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | -0.8 | -4 | -0.8 | -20.9 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.66 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Zion Stewart | - | 3 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 10 | 2.5 | 47.6 | 0.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.45 | 21.0 | 0.0 |
| Ava Snyder | - | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -43 | -3.1 | -36.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.58 | 0 | 0 |
| Gracie Griffiths | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -13 | -1.4 | -53.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.09 | 0 | 0 |
| Abby Stair | - | 1 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5 | 5.0 | 30.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.35 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG