Alvernia
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1040 (#200) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1023 (#341) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1010 (#364) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -5.7 (#201) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -9.0 (#516) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.606 (#395) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.396 (#402) | AdjNet -3.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.386 (#402) | AdjNet -4.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.441 (#400) | AdjO 75.5 | AdjD 78.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.448 (#513) | AdjO 76.6 | AdjD 78.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.414 (#472) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.421 (#474) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1016 (#341) | RD 98 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Rutgers-Camden | L | 76 - 81 |
| 2025-11-10 | vs | Penn St.-Abington | W | 92 - 80 |
| 2025-11-12 | @ | Penn St.-Berks | W | 114 - 73 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Montclair St. | L | 91 - 93 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Kean | W | 76 - 66 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Penn St. Harrisburg | L | 76 - 80 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Gwynedd Mercy | W | 88 - 84 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Arcadia | W | 72 - 61 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Marymount (VA) | L | 0 - 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Notre Dame (MD) | L | 90 - 113 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Keystone | W | 85 - 70 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Widener | W | 77 - 75 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Stevenson | W | 71 - 68 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | York (PA) | L | 62 - 79 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Albright | L | 78 - 99 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Hood | L | 94 - 104 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Messiah | W | 88 - 70 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Eastern | W | 89 - 64 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Stevenson | L | 72 - 88 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | York (PA) | W | 80 - 77 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Albright | L | 75 - 85 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mazen Sayed | - | 1 | 36.0 | 27.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 23.0 | 81 | 5.1 | 21.6 | 90.0 | 66.7 | 87.5 | 3.36 | 99.9 | 100.0 |
| Robert Cottrell | - | 17 | 36.2 | 17.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 28 | 2.8 | 37.2 | 45.0 | 42.1 | 81.0 | -0.01 | 59.8 | 52.6 |
| Rasheem Dearry | - | 18 | 32.8 | 15.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 12.2 | 9.8 | 11 | 1.0 | 16.0 | 43.6 | 31.4 | 91.1 | 0.18 | 56.2 | 50.9 |
| Elijah Hamilton | - | 17 | 31.2 | 15.0 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 44 | 2.4 | 8.6 | 57.3 | 100.0 | 64.9 | 0.06 | 60.2 | 57.6 |
| Justin Savage | - | 1 | 29.0 | 15.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | -6 | -1.5 | -29.6 | 46.2 | 50.0 | 100.0 | -0.68 | 54.0 | 50.0 |
| Janye Stanley | - | 18 | 32.8 | 14.9 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 90 | 5.0 | 18.8 | 46.8 | 38.5 | 75.4 | 1.95 | 59.0 | 55.5 |
| D.J. Johnson | - | 1 | 30.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 50 | 3.1 | 13.1 | 55.6 | 60.0 | 0 | 4.04 | 72.2 | 72.2 |
| Tate Landis | - | 1 | 28.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 77 | 5.1 | 18.5 | 44.4 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 2.48 | 55.7 | 50.0 |
| Pat Bean | - | 1 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -8 | -1.6 | -16.5 | 33.3 | 25.0 | 100.0 | -3.4 | 45.5 | 38.9 |
| Cooper Haberern | - | 1 | 32.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 112 | 8.0 | 24.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 0 | 3.99 | 45.0 | 45.0 |
| Nick Schroeder | - | 1 | 26.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 54 | 3.6 | 18.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 0 | 2.69 | 112.5 | 112.5 |
| Mason Jones | - | 18 | 24.2 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 13 | 0.9 | 27.3 | 47.4 | 21.1 | 84.1 | 0.72 | 55.9 | 49.1 |
| Devin Benson | - | 1 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6 | 0.4 | 4.7 | 50.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | -0.23 | 54.3 | 58.3 |
| Yadiel Cruz | - | 1 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5 | 5.0 | 24.9 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.77 | 83.3 | 83.3 |
| Kareem Diaz | - | 18 | 22.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 57 | 3.0 | 13.4 | 46.2 | 16.0 | 84.0 | 6.19 | 55.9 | 49.2 |
| Ben Troyer | - | 1 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 45 | 3.0 | 14.9 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.95 | 69.4 | 50.0 |
| Jake Okon | - | 1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 28 | 1.8 | 31.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0 | 1.19 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Austin Mbuyi | - | 10 | 11.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | -15 | -1.4 | -23.4 | 44.0 | 42.9 | 40.0 | -1.55 | 49.6 | 50.0 |
| Keon Long-mtume | - | 15 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 14 | 0.9 | 13.6 | 38.2 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 0.53 | 46.3 | 38.2 |
| Naji Hamilton | - | 7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 11 | 1.6 | 30.3 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.02 | 74.3 | 66.7 |
| Colin Treude | - | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 49 | 3.5 | 49.1 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.06 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Saleem Hudson | - | 10 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 18 | 9.0 | 36.3 | 46.2 | 33.3 | 75.0 | 2.02 | 61.0 | 57.7 |
| Derrick Golden | - | 8 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 4 | 0.7 | 16.3 | 40.0 | 20.0 | 75.0 | 0.99 | 51.0 | 45.0 |
| Brandon Rogers | - | 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 3.0 | 66.1 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0.47 | 38.7 | 33.3 |
| Jalen Snead | - | 1 | 30.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 55 | 3.4 | 16.9 | 0.0 | 0 | 25.0 | 2.15 | 4.6 | 0.0 |
| Blaize Eldridge | - | 7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 6 | 0.9 | 20.6 | 40.0 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 0.14 | 51.0 | 50.0 |
| Damon Rawls | - | 6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 6 | 1.2 | 44.9 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Ian Hendrix | - | 6 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 5 | 1.2 | 37.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0.34 | 26.6 | 0.0 |
| Cam Lane | - | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | -12 | -1.2 | -28.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Brown Jr. | - | 3 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -1 | -1.0 | -22.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.14 | 0 | 0 |
| James Debus | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Pape | - | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 17 | 1.4 | 25.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Aleks Smith | - | 1 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 21 | 1.5 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.93 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Christian Clark-Stokes | - | 1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG