🐻⬇️🏀

Alma

Also known as: Alma
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 833 (#583) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 788 (#593) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 848 (#724) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -14.4 (#398) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -19.0 (#673) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.119 (#723) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -18.2 More → 0.109 (#636) AdjNet -18.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -18.5 More → 0.104 (#636) AdjNet -18.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 67.7 | AdjD 81.3 More → 0.225 (#630) AdjO 67.7 | AdjD 81.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 67.5 | AdjD 80.8 More → 0.230 (#726) AdjO 67.5 | AdjD 80.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.159 (#705) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.162 (#711) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 106 | GP 22 More → 767 (#572) RD 106 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ Ohio Wesleyan - Incomplete score
2025-11-08 @ Denison - Incomplete score
2025-11-12 vs North Park - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 vs Carthage - Incomplete score
2025-11-19 @ Manchester - Incomplete score
2025-11-22 @ Saginaw Valley - Incomplete score
2025-11-29 vs Concordia Chicago - Incomplete score
2025-12-12 @ Linfield - Incomplete score
2025-12-13 @ Pacific (OR) - Incomplete score
2025-12-17 vs Westminster (PA) - Incomplete score
2025-12-20 vs Wis.-Whitewater - Incomplete score
2025-12-30 @ Capital - Incomplete score
2026-01-07 @ Calvin - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 @ Trine - Incomplete score
2026-01-14 vs Olivet - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 @ Hope - Incomplete score
2026-01-21 @ Albion - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ Kalamazoo - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 vs Adrian - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 vs Trine - Incomplete score
2026-02-04 @ Olivet - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 vs Hope - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Korbin Heitzman - 20 32.5 17.1 9.8 1.2 0.8 0.8 2.7 12.9 14.0 -189 -9.0 -61.0 49.2 16.7 68.3 -2.32 54.6 49.6
Lee Hardy - 1 19.0 14.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 11.0 11.0 -35 -1.8 -11.1 63.6 0 0.0 -0.28 58.9 63.6
Conner Schipper - 1 26.0 13.0 8.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 14.0 10.0 -2 -0.1 -0.4 42.9 20.0 0.0 -0.45 45.0 46.4
Elijah Sykes - 19 21.5 11.2 2.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 2.0 9.2 4.8 -114 -6.0 -49.4 36.8 32.7 87.3 1.36 53.5 47.1
Porter Kretschman - 1 22.0 11.0 7.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 7.0 18.0 -33 -1.6 -5.9 71.4 0 100.0 -1.18 73.9 71.4
Nathan Richardson - 1 30.0 11.0 3.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 16.0 -22 -1.1 -3.8 50.0 33.3 0.0 -0.15 52.7 55.0
Donovan Collins - 20 26.3 8.6 2.5 0.9 0.9 0.1 1.0 8.2 3.8 -94 -4.7 -52.6 32.7 30.0 73.5 1.36 47.8 44.5
Josh Elliott - 19 25.2 7.1 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 1.3 6.7 2.6 -160 -8.0 -49.6 32.3 32.7 95.2 -2.04 49.5 45.3
Raine Rodich - 20 18.1 7.0 2.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 2.4 5.2 4.7 -80 -3.8 -34.4 51.5 16.7 69.4 -1.63 56.6 51.9
Kayden Neiderquill - 1 4.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 10 1.7 98.8 66.7 100.0 100.0 - 87.2 83.3
Logan St. Martin - 20 23.1 5.7 4.5 1.4 0.6 0.5 1.1 5.0 6.8 -101 -6.3 -628.0 50.5 22.2 40.0 - 52.9 53.5
Joss Bradley - 20 19.3 5.5 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.2 1.2 4.7 6.2 -118 -5.6 -60.2 41.9 40.0 60.5 -0.85 49.7 46.2
Sean Shenker - 1 23.0 5.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 1.0 60 3.2 12.2 33.3 0.0 33.3 3.04 34.2 33.3
Mike Okello - 1 18.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 9.0 18 0.9 6.9 50.0 0 100.0 -0.35 69.4 50.0
Luciano Guerrazzi - 19 11.8 2.4 2.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.7 2.2 3.6 -124 -6.2 -39.6 48.8 50.0 50.0 -1.84 51.7 51.2
Preston Malpass - 18 11.2 2.4 2.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.9 2.8 2.2 -120 -6.7 -77.5 29.4 31.4 28.6 -1.87 39.8 40.2
Jaxon Jurmu - 7 4.1 2.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.6 0.0 -15 -1.9 -56.0 33.3 30.0 66.7 - 44.0 41.7
Jamahr Motley - 1 4.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 7 1.4 69.1 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Logan Walton - 1 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 16 2.3 87.9 50.0 0 0 2.33 50.0 50.0
Darrion Sardo - 6 5.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 -21 -3.5 -89.4 50.0 25.0 100.0 -0.2 68.3 58.3
James Dymek - 6 4.5 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 3 0.5 16.4 75.0 0 100.0 3.11 82.0 75.0
Lance Atkinson - 9 4.0 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.7 8 0.8 19.6 30.8 0.0 75.0 3.07 37.3 30.8
Brighton Gavin - 12 4.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.6 1.3 -40 -3.3 -45.9 42.9 0 70.0 -4.2 57.0 42.9
Liam Adams - 6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.3 -9 -1.3 -57.4 50.0 0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Tyran Griffin - 13 2.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.2 -10 -0.7 -18.0 30.0 16.7 0.0 -0.98 32.2 35.0
Rashad Smith - 11 3.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 -22 -2.2 -74.8 33.3 66.7 0 0.73 50.0 50.0
Kyler Chovanec - 10 2.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 -24 -2.2 -77.0 20.0 0.0 50.0 -2.07 25.5 20.0
Grant Mossburg - 9 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 -5 -0.5 -27.5 50.0 0 50.0 - 52.1 50.0
Tucker Blemaster - 1 4.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 4 4.0 39.5 0 0 0 - 0 0
Jayden Hanson - 2 2.4 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Waylon Sales - 2 2.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG