🐻⬇️🏀

Alma

Season: 2026 2024 2019
Also known as: Alma
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 951 (#336) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 987 (#353) HCA +95 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → -15.4 (#505) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.006 (#672) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -25.0 More → 0.053 (#667) AdjNet -25.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -24.5 More → 0.052 (#663) AdjNet -24.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 82.5 More → 0.165 (#658) AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 82.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 70.7 | AdjD 76.2 More → 0.377 (#478) AdjO 70.7 | AdjD 76.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.251 (#507) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.269 (#501) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 1 More → 945 (#288) RD 350 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-22 @ Saginaw Valley L 55 - 87

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Korbin Heitzman - 1 27.2 13.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 9.0 15.0 - - - 66.7 0 25.0 - 60.4 66.7
Elijah Sykes - 1 8.2 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 3.0 - - - 57.1 75.0 0 - 78.6 78.6
Josh Elliott - 1 25.3 9.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 12.0 -2.0 73 4.1 30.4 25.0 33.3 0 1.89 37.5 37.5
Joss Bradley - 1 18.2 7.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 3.0 - - - 60.0 0 25.0 - 51.8 60.0
Raine Rodich - 1 18.8 6.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 9.0 1.0 - - - 33.3 0.0 0.0 - 31.8 33.3
Preston Malpass - 1 14.4 3.0 5.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 7.0 - - - 33.3 50.0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Brighton Gavin - 1 9.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 - - - 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Tyran Griffin - 1 2.8 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 - - - 0 0 100.0 - 113.6 0
Rashad Smith - 1 2.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -8 -1.6 -39.5 0 0 66.7 -0.33 75.8 0
Liam Adams - 1 2.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Lance Atkinson - 1 4.8 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0
Kyler Chovanec - 1 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Donovan Collins - 1 26.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 -3.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0
James Dymek - 1 3.3 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Luciano Guerrazzi - 1 7.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Grant Mossburg - 1 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Logan St. Martin - 1 23.4 0.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 -10 -0.6 -4.1 0.0 0 0 -0.75 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG