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Alas. Fairbanks

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2020 2019 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: Alas. Fairbanks
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 770 (#520) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 691 (#531) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 788 (#678) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -24.2 (#294) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -25.3 (#627) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.043 (#572) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -46.0 More → 0.002 (#473) NetEff -46.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -18.5 More → 0.106 (#590) AdjNet -18.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -18.1 More → 0.103 (#590) AdjNet -18.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 62.9 | AdjD 75.2 More → 0.245 (#596) AdjO 62.9 | AdjD 75.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 51.9 | AdjD 76.3 More → 0.098 (#693) AdjO 51.9 | AdjD 76.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.073 (#672) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.073 (#676) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 133 | GP 20 More → 592 (#524) RD 133 | GP 20

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Hawaii Hilo L 76 - 98
2025-11-16 vs Master's L 72 - 104
2025-11-21 @ Westminster (UT) L 74 - 99
2025-11-22 @ Colorado Mesa L 53 - 102
2025-11-28 @ MSU Moorhead L 63 - 112
2025-11-29 @ St. Cloud St. L 53 - 101
2025-12-04 @ Western Ore. L 24 - 82
2025-12-06 @ Saint Martin's L 37 - 74
2025-12-13 vs N.M. Highlands W 65 - 64
2025-12-18 @ Azusa Pacific L 50 - 82
2025-12-20 @ Biola L 49 - 75
2026-01-01 vs Central Wash. L 49 - 69
2026-01-03 vs Northwest Nazarene L 43 - 84
2026-01-10 @ Alas. Anchorage L 41 - 76
2026-01-15 @ Western Wash. L 47 - 72
2026-01-17 @ Simon Fraser L 46 - 109
2026-01-22 vs Mont. St. Billings L 45 - 86
2026-01-24 vs Seattle Pacific L 56 - 69
2026-01-29 @ Northwest Nazarene L 45 - 84
2026-01-31 @ Central Wash. L 40 - 92
2026-02-07 vs Alas. Anchorage L 69 - 79

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jordyn DeVaughn - 1 32.2 16.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 14.0 4.0 - - - 28.6 50.0 100.0 - 49.4 39.3
Tamai Mancuso - 20 23.4 14.2 2.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.6 14.0 1.6 -165 -8.7 -45.9 36.8 28.9 78.3 -2.3 47.1 44.1
Milahnie Perry - 1 31.0 13.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 12.0 3.0 - - - 41.7 33.3 100.0 - 50.5 45.8
Bhret Clay - 1 33.0 12.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 6.0 - - - 41.7 40.0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Jayda McNabb - 1 36.2 11.0 13.0 7.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 10.0 27.0 - - - 50.0 0.0 50.0 - 50.6 50.0
Jazlynn Novelli - 9 24.7 10.2 3.7 1.3 1.7 0.7 3.8 15.4 -1.7 -134 -13.4 -69.3 28.8 14.6 54.5 -2.91 32.0 30.9
Pearle Green - 17 18.3 8.3 1.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 2.5 8.6 1.3 -139 -8.7 -45.3 34.9 32.6 71.4 0.65 46.3 44.9
Ashlyn Waggoner - 8 20.3 7.5 5.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 3.8 6.8 4.6 33 4.7 37.2 35.2 23.1 52.8 0.69 43.0 38.0
Keelie O'Hollaren - 1 28.1 7.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 5.0 - - - 25.0 0.0 75.0 - 35.9 25.0
Emily Freeman - 20 29.6 6.2 2.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 1.7 7.0 2.5 -277 -14.6 -63.5 28.4 27.0 70.8 -2.65 40.9 37.9
Alycia Shelley - 12 20.5 4.4 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.0 2.2 4.2 2.9 -43 -3.9 -42.0 33.3 18.8 57.1 -0.91 41.9 36.3
Genevieve Velasquez - 20 20.4 4.2 4.7 0.7 1.1 0.4 1.9 5.0 4.2 -198 -10.4 -62.5 34.0 25.0 75.0 -3.13 39.2 36.0
Marissa Hargrave - 1 17.2 4.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 6.0 -1.0 - - - 33.3 0.0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Anna Nevison - 1 12.7 4.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 9.0 -3.0 -14 -7.0 -69.1 11.1 0.0 100.0 -0.39 20.2 11.1
Chozen Horn-Young - 18 17.8 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.0 4.2 3.9 -0.9 -224 -13.2 -96.9 24.3 25.0 51.5 -2.35 33.7 28.6
Amelia Brady - 17 20.6 2.4 4.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 3.8 3.9 -212 -13.2 -103.2 26.6 0.0 42.9 -3.28 28.5 26.6
Emily Adams - 1 13.7 2.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 10 2.0 152.9 33.3 0 0 0.72 33.3 33.3
Marney Rees - 20 17.4 1.9 4.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.4 1.8 4.1 -108 -5.7 -50.2 41.7 0.0 53.8 -2.04 44.3 41.7
Desiree Redfox - 20 19.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.1 1.6 1.8 1.1 -199 -10.5 -68.8 27.8 25.0 75.0 0.24 39.2 34.7
Grace Gillespie - 15 8.6 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.7 -11 -0.8 -17.6 29.2 0.0 60.0 -1.53 37.6 29.2
Sophia Lachenmayer - 6 3.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -0.2 -28 -4.7 -74.5 16.7 50.0 0 -0.71 25.0 25.0
Alannis Rogers - 8 3.3 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.5 3 0.4 156.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.27 0.0 0.0
Madelyn Jensen - 1 6.6 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
AJ Mannering - 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG