Alas. Fairbanks
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 727 (#522) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 645 (#535) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 788 (#678) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -24.1 (#362) | HCA +2.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -25.3 (#627) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.043 (#572) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.002 (#473) | NetEff -46.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.106 (#590) | AdjNet -18.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.103 (#590) | AdjNet -18.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.245 (#596) | AdjO 62.9 | AdjD 75.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.098 (#693) | AdjO 51.9 | AdjD 76.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.073 (#672) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.073 (#676) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 592 (#515) | RD 134 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Hawaii Hilo | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Master's | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Westminster (UT) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Colorado Mesa | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | MSU Moorhead | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | St. Cloud St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Western Ore. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Saint Martin's | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | N.M. Highlands | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-18 | @ | Azusa Pacific | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Biola | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-01 | vs | Central Wash. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Northwest Nazarene | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Alas. Anchorage | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Western Wash. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Simon Fraser | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Mont. St. Billings | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Seattle Pacific | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Northwest Nazarene | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Central Wash. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Alas. Anchorage | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamai Mancuso | - | 20 | 23.4 | 14.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 14.0 | 1.6 | -165 | -8.7 | -45.9 | 36.8 | 28.9 | 78.3 | -0.84 | 47.1 | 44.1 |
| Jazlynn Novelli | - | 9 | 24.7 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 15.4 | -1.7 | -134 | -13.4 | -69.3 | 28.8 | 14.6 | 54.5 | -2.91 | 32.0 | 30.9 |
| Pearle Green | - | 17 | 18.3 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 8.6 | 1.3 | -139 | -8.7 | -45.3 | 34.9 | 32.6 | 71.4 | -0.56 | 46.3 | 44.9 |
| Ashlyn Waggoner | - | 8 | 20.3 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 33 | 4.7 | 37.2 | 35.2 | 23.1 | 52.8 | 5.09 | 43.0 | 38.0 |
| Emily Freeman | - | 20 | 29.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 2.5 | -277 | -14.6 | -63.5 | 28.4 | 27.0 | 70.8 | -2.24 | 40.9 | 37.9 |
| Alycia Shelley | - | 12 | 20.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 2.9 | -43 | -3.9 | -42.0 | 33.3 | 18.8 | 57.1 | 0.1 | 41.9 | 36.3 |
| Genevieve Velasquez | - | 20 | 20.4 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 | -198 | -10.4 | -62.5 | 34.0 | 25.0 | 75.0 | -1.21 | 39.2 | 36.0 |
| Anna Nevison | - | 1 | 12.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | -3.0 | -14 | -7.0 | -69.1 | 11.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 20.2 | 11.1 |
| Chozen Horn-Young | - | 18 | 17.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | -0.9 | -224 | -13.2 | -96.9 | 24.3 | 25.0 | 51.5 | -3.81 | 33.7 | 28.6 |
| Amelia Brady | - | 17 | 20.6 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | -212 | -13.2 | -103.2 | 26.6 | 0.0 | 42.9 | -1.79 | 28.5 | 26.6 |
| Marney Rees | - | 20 | 17.4 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 4.1 | -108 | -5.7 | -50.2 | 41.7 | 0.0 | 53.8 | 0.13 | 44.3 | 41.7 |
| Desiree Redfox | - | 20 | 19.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | -199 | -10.5 | -68.8 | 27.8 | 25.0 | 75.0 | -1.56 | 39.2 | 34.7 |
| Grace Gillespie | - | 15 | 8.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | -11 | -0.8 | -17.6 | 29.2 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 2.66 | 37.6 | 29.2 |
| Sophia Lachenmayer | - | 6 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -0.2 | -28 | -4.7 | -74.5 | 16.7 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Alannis Rogers | - | 8 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3 | 0.4 | 156.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.82 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG