🐻⬇️🏀

Adrian

Season: 2026
Also known as: Adrian
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 972 (#347) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 926 (#394) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 923 (#588) HCA +75 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -4.9 (#438) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.045 (#569) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -20.3 More → 0.045 (#421) NetEff -20.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -17.2 More → 0.121 (#577) AdjNet -17.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -16.3 More → 0.125 (#576) AdjNet -16.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 52.1 | AdjD 61.2 More → 0.303 (#553) AdjO 52.1 | AdjD 61.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 55.8 | AdjD 61.5 More → 0.373 (#558) AdjO 55.8 | AdjD 61.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.350 (#486) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.342 (#497) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 263 | GP 1 More → 871 (#413) RD 263 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-12-30 @ Ohio Dominican L 46 - 60

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Aubrie Ickes - 1 31.7 13.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 13.0 7.0 - - - 38.5 0 42.9 - 40.4 38.5
Morgan Babb - 1 30.5 10.0 7.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 13.0 5.0 - - - 38.5 0.0 0 - 38.5 38.5
Anna Ignatoski - 1 18.6 8.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 - - - 66.7 0.0 0 - 66.7 66.7
Ava Schultz - 1 30.3 7.0 6.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 8.0 23 1.4 18.4 60.0 33.3 0 0.89 70.0 70.0
Darby Lienerth - 1 18.5 3.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 - - - 25.0 33.3 0 - 37.5 37.5
Hannah Lisch - 1 27.2 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 4.0 -3.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 75.0 - 26.0 0.0
Ashlyn Moorehead - 1 20.0 2.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Jenna Tierman - 1 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 -3.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Aleena McCullough - 1 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Emma McElroy - 1 12.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG