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Adrian Bulldogs

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Adrian
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 764 (#620) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 758 (#614) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 778 (#765) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -14.7 (#403) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -20.1 (#687) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.173 (#691) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -13.0 More → 0.193 (#48) NetEff -13.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -15.6 More → 0.142 (#590) AdjNet -15.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -15.9 More → 0.135 (#591) AdjNet -15.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.8 | AdjD 78.7 More → 0.254 (#587) AdjO 66.8 | AdjD 78.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 85.5 More → 0.214 (#729) AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 85.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.142 (#717) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.144 (#723) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 101 | GP 22 More → 732 (#595) RD 101 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ Oberlin - Incomplete score
2025-11-08 vs Franciscan - Incomplete score
2025-11-12 @ Siena Heights - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 @ Capital - Incomplete score
2025-11-19 vs Wittenberg - Incomplete score
2025-11-25 @ Central Mich. - Incomplete score
2025-12-06 @ Denison - Incomplete score
2025-12-13 @ Dominican (IL) - Incomplete score
2025-12-14 @ Concordia Chicago - Incomplete score
2025-12-17 vs Wilmington (OH) - Incomplete score
2025-12-29 vs Bluffton - Incomplete score
2025-12-31 vs Hiram - Incomplete score
2026-01-07 vs Kalamazoo - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 vs Calvin - Incomplete score
2026-01-14 @ Hope - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 @ Trine - Incomplete score
2026-01-21 vs Olivet - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ Albion - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 @ Alma - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 vs Hope - Incomplete score
2026-02-04 @ Calvin - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 vs Trine - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Justin Bushu - 1 20.0 17.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 15.0 - - - 85.7 100.0 100.0 - 102.2 100.0
Darrius Welsh - 20 31.9 15.3 6.2 1.6 1.9 0.9 3.2 11.3 11.3 -21 -3.0 -23.0 43.2 40.4 74.0 -0.51 56.5 51.1
Seth Logan - 20 26.6 13.8 3.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.9 10.4 7.1 -2 -0.1 -0.5 39.2 33.6 84.1 1.62 56.5 49.8
Carson Lutz - 18 23.1 10.3 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.1 7.2 5.7 -83 -4.9 -23.3 42.6 33.3 85.7 -0.29 57.1 46.5
George Kalatzis - 1 21.0 9.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 8.0 4.0 - - - 37.5 25.0 40.0 - 44.1 43.8
Brendon Schlink - 10 22.5 8.6 3.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.5 7.7 4.7 -3 -0.3 -6.2 42.9 33.3 63.6 -1.25 52.5 51.3
Luke Rager - 18 27.1 8.1 2.3 3.4 0.6 0.1 2.1 7.2 5.2 -45 -2.6 -16.9 43.8 37.0 75.9 0.26 51.1 47.7
Jeremiah Dallas-Martian - 19 20.8 7.2 3.3 2.9 1.8 0.1 2.5 5.7 7.1 -12 -3.0 -22.7 39.4 44.0 59.7 - 49.5 44.5
Danilo Rajlic - 1 29.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 3.0 - - - 20.0 0.0 75.0 - 37.0 20.0
Gavin Saunders - 9 4.3 4.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.2 2.4 2.3 -14 -1.6 -65.9 59.1 57.1 66.7 -2.41 77.1 77.3
Dylan Gira - 17 11.3 4.1 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 3.5 3.1 -74 -4.6 -50.2 43.3 33.3 70.0 -1.75 53.6 51.7
Austin Burns - 15 18.2 3.5 3.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.0 2.8 5.3 -52 -3.5 -18.8 52.4 44.4 44.4 -1.43 56.6 57.1
Noah Vanlaningham - 19 10.7 3.2 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.7 3.9 0.8 -49 -2.7 -34.9 33.8 21.6 50.0 -0.98 39.8 39.2
Jayden Smiley - 19 15.5 2.9 2.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.7 2.9 2.8 -16 -0.8 -8.1 46.4 0.0 37.5 1.57 46.2 46.4
Jacob Rehor - 9 7.7 2.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.0 -13 -1.6 -191.4 52.9 42.9 0 0.16 61.8 61.8
Lewis Covile - 14 5.7 1.9 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 2.4 0.0 - - - 27.3 14.3 54.5 - 35.7 31.8
Cayden Lepper - 10 9.0 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.9 0.3 -12 -1.2 -17.7 15.8 18.2 83.3 1.12 30.0 21.1
Tavion Long - 3 3.3 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 -0.3 - - - 33.3 0 0.0 0.82 25.8 33.3
Austin Foster - 3 2.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 91 4.8 21.1 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.23 53.2 0.0
Curtis Dell - 5 3.2 0.4 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 -2 -0.4 -13.3 33.3 0 0 -0.44 33.3 33.3
Maisen Bordchart - 1 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Aidan Wright - 1 5.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 36 2.0 41.4 0.0 0 0 0.61 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG