Adrian Bulldogs
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 785 (#357) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 778 (#353) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 778 (#765) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -13.7 (#299) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -20.1 (#687) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.173 (#364) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.193 (#48) | NetEff -13.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.142 (#286) | AdjNet -15.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.135 (#287) | AdjNet -15.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.254 (#286) | AdjO 66.8 | AdjD 78.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.214 (#729) | AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 85.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.142 (#717) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.144 (#723) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 732 (#595) | RD 101 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Oberlin | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Franciscan | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-12 | @ | Siena Heights | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Capital | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Wittenberg | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Central Mich. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Denison | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Dominican (IL) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-14 | @ | Concordia Chicago | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Wilmington (OH) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-29 | vs | Bluffton | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-31 | vs | Hiram | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Kalamazoo | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Calvin | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Hope | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Trine | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Olivet | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Albion | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Alma | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Hope | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-11 | @ | Kalamazoo | W | 95 - 74 |
| 2026-02-14 | vs | Alma | W | 92 - 72 |
| 2026-02-18 | @ | Olivet | L | 73 - 89 |
| 2026-02-21 | vs | Albion | L | 94 - 103 |
| 2026-02-24 | @ | Calvin | L | 63 - 105 |
2026 Roster
No roster data available for this season.