Adrian Bulldogs
Model Outputs
2025-2026 latest available
No materialized model snapshot for 2023 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 850 (#579) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 834 (#563) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 778 (#765) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -15.0 (#315) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -20.1 (#687) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.173 (#691) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.193 (#48) | NetEff -13.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.142 (#590) | AdjNet -15.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.135 (#591) | AdjNet -15.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.254 (#587) | AdjO 66.8 | AdjD 78.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.214 (#729) | AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 85.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.142 (#717) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.144 (#723) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 735 (#589) | RD 101 | GP 22 |
2023 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-11 | @ | Anderson (IN) | L | 54 - 75 |
| 2022-11-12 | @ | Manchester | W | 67 - 66 |
| 2022-11-19 | @ | Defiance | L | 79 - 88 |
| 2022-11-22 | vs | Siena Heights | W | 60 - 58 |
| 2022-12-03 | @ | CWRU | L | 61 - 89 |
| 2022-12-13 | @ | Oberlin | L | 56 - 66 |
| 2022-12-15 | vs | Otterbein | L | 70 - 79 |
| 2022-12-19 | @ | Ohio Wesleyan | L | 59 - 71 |
| 2022-12-20 | @ | Wittenberg | W | 77 - 73 |
| 2022-12-30 | @ | Hiram | L | 68 - 87 |
| 2023-01-02 | vs | Capital | L | 70 - 86 |
| 2023-01-04 | @ | Olivet | L | 63 - 77 |
| 2023-01-07 | vs | Kalamazoo | L | 86 - 87 |
| 2023-01-11 | @ | Alma | W | 80 - 65 |
| 2023-01-14 | vs | Calvin | L | 59 - 64 |
| 2023-01-18 | @ | Hope | L | 60 - 74 |
| 2023-01-21 | vs | Albion | W | 73 - 68 |
| 2023-01-25 | vs | Trine | L | 64 - 76 |
| 2023-01-28 | @ | Calvin | L | 41 - 66 |
| 2023-02-01 | vs | Olivet | L | 82 - 92 |
| 2023-02-04 | vs | Hope | L | 63 - 72 |
| 2023-02-08 | @ | Albion | L | 78 - 83 |
| 2023-02-11 | @ | Kalamazoo | W | 76 - 67 |
| 2023-02-15 | vs | Alma | W | 86 - 79 |
| 2023-02-18 | @ | Trine | L | 48 - 86 |
| 2023-02-23 | @ | Hope | L | 63 - 82 |
2023 Roster
No roster data available for this season.